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Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model

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Abstract

The potential for predicting interannual variations of the Leeuwin Current along the west coast of Australia is addressed. The Leeuwin Current flows poleward against the prevailing winds and transports warm-fresh tropical water southward along the coast, which has a great impact on local climate and ecosystems. Variations of the current are tightly tied to El Niño/La Niña (weak during El Niño and strong during La Niña). Skilful seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current to 9-month lead time is achieved by empirical downscaling of dynamical coupled model forecasts of El Niño and the associated upper ocean heat content anomalies off the north west coast of Australia from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal forecast system. Prediction of the Leeuwin Current is possible because the heat content fluctuations off the north west coast are the primary driver of interannual annual variations of the current and these heat content variations are tightly tied to the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña. POAMA can skilfully predict both the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña and the subsequent transmission of the heat content anomalies from the Pacific onto the north west coast.

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Acknowledgments

Monthly mean sea level at Fremantle was obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology National Tidal Centre. These data were derived from raw sea level measurements provided by the Fremantle Port Authority. Comments by M. Feng and constructive reviews by G. Meyers and an anonymous reviewer are acknowledged. Support for this work was provided in part from the Western Australian Marine Science Institution (WAMSI; http://www.wamsi.org.au).

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  1. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289, Melbourne, 3001, Australia

    Harry H. Hendon & Guomin Wang

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  1. Harry H. Hendon
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  2. Guomin Wang
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Correspondence to Harry H. Hendon.

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Hendon, H.H., Wang, G. Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model. Clim Dyn 34, 1129–1137 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0570-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0570-3

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