Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Salinity changes in the World Ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Global hydrographic and air–sea freshwater flux datasets are used to investigate ocean salinity changes over 1950–2010 in relation to surface freshwater flux. On multi-decadal timescales, surface salinity increases (decreases) in evaporation (precipitation) dominated regions, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increases, and the upper thermocline salinity maximum increases while the salinity minimum of intermediate waters decreases. Potential trends in E–P are examined for 1950–2010 (using two reanalyses) and 1979–2010 (using four reanalyses and two blended products). Large differences in the 1950–2010 E–P trend patterns are evident in several regions, particularly the North Atlantic. For 1979–2010 some coherency in the spatial change patterns is evident but there is still a large spread in trend magnitude and sign between the six E–P products. However, a robust pattern of increased E–P in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres is seen in all products. There is also some evidence in the tropical Pacific for a link between the spatial change patterns of salinity and E–P associated with ENSO. The water cycle amplification rate over specific regions is subsequently inferred from the observed 3-D salinity change field using a salt conservation equation in variable isopycnal volumes, implicitly accounting for the migration of isopycnal surfaces. Inferred global changes of E–P over 1950–2010 amount to an increase of 1 ± 0.6 % in net evaporation across the subtropics and an increase of 4.2 ± 2 % in net precipitation across subpolar latitudes. Amplification rates are approximately doubled over 1979–2010, consistent with accelerated broad-scale warming but also coincident with much improved salinity sampling over the latter period.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin EJ (2003) The version 2.1 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979—present). J Hydrometeorol 4(6):1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan RP, Soden BJ, John VO, Ingram W, Good P (2010) Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environ Res Lett 5:025205. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alory GSW, Wijffels S, Meyers G (2007) Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960–1999 and associated mechanism. Geophys Res Lett 34:L02606. doi:10.1029/2006GL028044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andersson A, Klepp C, Fennig K, Bakan S, Hartmut Grassl H, Jörg Schulz J (2011) Evaluation of HOAPS-3 ocean surface freshwater flux components. J Appl Meteor Climatol 50:379–398

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Antonov JI, Levitus S, Boyer T (2002) Steric sea level variations during 1957–1994: importance of salinity. J Geophys Res 107(C12):8013. doi:10.1029/2001JC000964

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arkin PA, Smith TM, Sapiano MRP, Janowiak J (2010) The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature. Environ Res Lett 5:035201. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belkin IM (2004) Propagation of the “great salinity anomaly” of the 1990s around the northern North Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett 31:L08306. doi:10.1029/2003GL019334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belkin IM, Levitus S, Antonov J, Malmberg SA (1998) “Great Salinity Anomalies” in the North Atlantic. Progr Oceanogr 41:1–68. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(98)00015-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bethoux JP, Gentili B (1999) Functioning of the Mediterranean Sea: past and present changes related to freshwater input and climate changes. J Mar Syst 20:33–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff NL, McDougall TJ (1994) Diagnosing climate change and ocean ventilation using hydrographic data. J Phys Oceanogr 24:1137–1152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff NL, Willebrand J, Artale V et al (2007) Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of the working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 385–432

    Google Scholar 

  • Boyer TP, Levitus S, Antonov JI, Locarnini RA, Garcia HE (2005) Linear trends in salinity for the World Ocean, 1955–1998. Geophys Res Lett 32:L01604. doi:10.1029/2004GL021791

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boyer TP, Levitus S, Antonov JI, Locarnini RA, Mishonov A, Garcia HE, Josey SA (2007) Changes in freshwater content in the North Atlantic Ocean 1955‐2006. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16603. doi:10.1029/2007GL030126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen C-A, Tu J-Y (2009) Evaluating the “rich get richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J Clim 22:1982–2005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD et al (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28. doi:10.1002/qj.776

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cravatte S, Delcroix T, Zhang D, McPhaden M, LeLoup J (2009) Observed freshening and warming of the western Pacific Warm Pool. Clim Dyn 33:565–589. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0526-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curry R, Mauritzen C (2005) Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. Science 308:1772–1774. doi:10.1126/science.1109477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curry RG, McCartney MS (2001) Ocean gyre circulation changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Phys Oceanogr 31:3374–3400. doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<3374:OGCCAW>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curry R, Dickson B, Yashayaev I (2003) A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature 426:826–829. doi:10.1038/nature02206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi:10.1002/qj.828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delcroix T, Alory G, Cravatte S, Corrège T, McPhaden M (2011) A gridded sea surface salinity data set for the tropical Pacific with sample applications (1950–2008). Deep Sea Res 58:38–48. doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2010.11.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson RR, Meincke J, Malmberg S, Lee AJ (1988) The “great salinity anomaly” in the northern North Atlantic 1968–1982. Prog Oceanogr 20:103–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Durack PJ, Wijffels SE (2010) Fifty-year trends in global ocean salinities and their relationship to broad-scale warming. J Clim 23:4342–4362. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Durack PJ, Wijffels SE, Matear RJ (2012) Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000. Science 336:455–458. doi:10.1126/science.1212222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gille ST (2002) Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s. Science 295(5558):1275–1277. doi:10.1126/science.1065863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gille ST (2008) Decadal-scale temperature trends in the southern hemisphere ocean. J Clim 21(18):4749–4765. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2131.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gouretski V, Koltermann KP (2007) How much is the ocean really warming? Geophys Res Lett 34(1):L01610. doi:10.1029/2006GL027834

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasson AEA, Delcroix T, Dussin R (2013) An assessment of the mixed layer salinity budget in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Observations and modelling (1990–2009). Ocean Dyn 63(2–3):179–194. doi:10.1007/s10236-013-0596-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699. doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helm KP, Bindoff NL, Church JA (2010) Changes in the global hydrological-cycle inferred from ocean salinity. Geophys Res Lett 37:L18701. doi:10.1029/2010GL044222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosoda S, Suga T, Shikama N, Mizuno K (2009) Global surface layer salinity change detected by Argo and its implication for hydrological cycle intensification. J Oceanogr 65:579–586. doi:10.1007/s10872-009-0049-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G (2009) Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP version 2.1. Geophys Res Lett 36:L17808. doi:10.1029/2009GL040000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679. doi:10.1126/science.269.5224.676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW, Deser C (2010) North Atlantic climate variability: the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Mar Syst 79:231–244. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ingleby B, Huddleston M (2007) Quality control of ocean temperature and salinity profiles-historical and real-time data. J Mar Syst 65:158–175. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.11.019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • John VO, Allan RP, Soden BJ (2009) How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to Tropical Ocean warming? Geophys Res Lett 36:L14702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S, Hnilo J, Fiorino M, Potter G (2002) NCEP DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (r-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kavvada A, Ruiz-Barradas A, Nigam S (2013) AMO’s structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1712-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V et al (2001) The NCEP–NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation Bull. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • L’Heureux ML, Lee S, Lyon B (2013) Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific. Nat Clim Change 3:571–576. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1840

    Google Scholar 

  • Large W, Yeager S (2009) The global climatology of an interannually varying air–sea flux dataset. Clim Dyn 33:341–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K-M, Wu H-T (2007) Detecting trends in tropical rainfall characteristics, 1979–2003. Int J Climatol 27:979–988. doi:10.1002/joc.1454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li L, Jiang X, Chahine MT, Olsen ET, Fetzer EJ, Chen L, Yung YL (2011) The recycling rate of atmospheric moisture over the past two decades (1988–2009). Env Res Lett 6:034018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu C, Allan RP (2012) Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability. J Geophys Res 117:D03101. doi:10.1029/2011JD016568

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Xiao T, Chen L (2011) Intercomparisons of air–sea heat fluxes over the Southern Ocean. J Clim 24(4):1198–1211. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3699.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu C, Allan RP, Huffman GJ (2012) Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations. Geophys Res Lett 39:L13803. doi:10.1029/2012GL052093

    Google Scholar 

  • Lozier MS, Stewart NM (2008) On the temporally northward penetration of Mediterranean overflow water and eastward penetration of Labrador Sea Water. J Phys Oceanogr 38:2097–2103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCartney MS, Mauritzen C (2001) On the origin of the warm inflow to the Nordic Seas. Prog Oceanogr 51:125–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 747–845

    Google Scholar 

  • Merrifield MA (2011) A shift in Western Tropical Pacific sea level trends during the 1990s. J Clim 24:4126–4138. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3932.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW, Gleckler PJ, Barnett TP, Santer BD, Durack PJ (2012) The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean’s salinity and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 39:L21704. doi:10.1029/2012GL053389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Potter R, Lozier S (2004) On the warming and salinification of the Mediterranean outflow waters in the North Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett 31:L01202. doi:10.1029/2003GL018161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reid JL (1979) On the contribution of the Mediterranean Sea outflow to the Norwegian–Greenland Sea. Deep Sea Res Part A 26:1199–1223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter I, Xie SP (2010) Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin and its response to North Atlantic cooling and global warming. Clim Dyn 35:551–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rixen M et al (2005) The Western Mediterranean deep water: a proxy for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 32:L12608. doi:10.1029/2005GL022702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rohling EJ, Bryden HL (1992) Man-induced salinity and temperature increases in western Mediterranean water. J Geophys Res 97:11191–11198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santer BD, Mears C, Wentz FJ et al (2007) Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc Nat Acad Sci 104(39):15248–15253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schanze JJ, Schmitt RW, Yu LL (2010) The global oceanic freshwater cycle: a state-of-the-art quantification. J Mar Res 68:569–595. doi:10.1357/002224010794657164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmitt RW (2008) Salinity and the global water cycle. Oceanography 21:12–19. doi:10.5670/oceanog.2008.63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skliris N, Sofianos S, Lascaratos A (2007) Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to changes in the freshwater budget: a numerical modelling study. J Mar Syst 65:400–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sohn BJ, Yeh SW, Schmetz J, Song HJ (2013) Observational evidences of Walker circulation change over the last 30 years contrasting with GCM results. Clim Dyn 40:1721–1732. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1484-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor MM, Miller HL Jr, Chen Z (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Stott PA, Sutton RT, Smith DM (2008) Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Geophys Res Lett 35:L21702. doi:10.1029/2008GL035874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sutton R, Hodson D (2003) Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871–1999. J Clim 16:3296–3313. doi:10.1126/science.1109496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray L, Corre L, Cravatte S, Delcroix T, Reverdin G, Ribes A (2012) Near-surface salinity as nature’s rain gauge to detect human influence on the tropical water cycle. J Clim 25:958–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tian Y, Peters-Lidard CD, Eylander JN, Joyce RJ, Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Hsu K-L, Turk FJ, Garcia M, Zeng J (2009) Component analysis of errors in satellite-based precipitation estimates. J Geophys Res 114:D24101. doi:10.1029/2009JD011949

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Smith L (2005) The mass of the atmosphere: a constraint on global analyses. J Clim 18(6):864–875. doi:10.1175/JCLI-3299.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Fasullo J, Smith L (2005) Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor. Clim Dyn 24:741–758. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Smith L, Qian T, Dai A, Fasullo J (2007) Estimates of the global water budget and its annual cycle using observational and model data. J Hydrometeorol 8:758–769. doi:10.1175/JHM600.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Fasullo J, Mackaro J (2011) Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses. J Clim 24(18):4907–4924. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tzortzi E, Josey SA, Srokosz M, Gommenginger C (2013) Tropical Atlantic salinity variability: new insights from SMOS. Geophys Res Lett 40:2143–2147. doi:10.1002/grl.50225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vinogradova NT, Ponte RM (2013) Clarifying the link between surface salinity and freshwater fluxes on monthly to inter-annual timescales. J Geophys Res 118:3190–3201. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wadley MR, Bigg GR (2006) Are “great salinity anomalies” advective? J Clim 19:1080–1088. doi:10.1175/JCLI3647.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wentz FJ, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K, Mears C (2007) How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317(5835):233–235. doi:10.1126/science.1140746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wijffels S (2001) Ocean transport of fresh water. In: Siedler G, Church J, Gould J (eds) Ocean circulation and climate. Academic Press, New York, pp 475–488

    Google Scholar 

  • Willett KW, Gillett NP, Jones PD, Thorne PW (2007) Attribution of observed humidity changes to human influence. Nature 449:710–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin PA (1996) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin X, Gruber A, Arkin P (2004) Comparison of the GPCP and CMAP Merged Gauge–Satellite monthly precipitation products for the period 1979–2001. J Hydrometeorol 5:1207–1222. doi:10.1175/JHM-392.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu L (2011) A global relationship between the ocean water cycle and near-surface salinity. J Geophys Res 116:C10025. doi:10.1029/2010JC006937

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu L, Weller RA (2007) Objectively analyzed air–sea flux fields for the global ice-free oceans (1981–2005). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:527–539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu L, Jin X, Weller RA (2008) Multidecade global flux datasets from the Objectively Analyzed air–sea Fluxes (OAFlux) project: latent and sensible heat fluxes, ocean evaporation, and related surface meteorological variables. OAFlux project technical report (OA2008–01), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

  • Zhang et al (2007) Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448:461–465. doi:10.1038/nature06025

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was part of the “HydrOlogical cYcle Understanding vIa Process-bAsed GlObal Detection, Attribution and prediction (Horyuji PAGODA)”, supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of the “Changing Water Cycle” programme (Grant No. NE/I006222/1). Simon Good was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Integrated Climate Programme, DECC/Defra (GA01101). We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their extremely thorough and constructive reviews.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK

    Nikolaos Skliris & Robert Marsh

  2. National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK

    Simon A. Josey

  3. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

    Simon A. Good

  4. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK

    Chunlei Liu & Richard P. Allan

Authors
  1. Nikolaos Skliris
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Robert Marsh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Simon A. Josey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Simon A. Good
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Chunlei Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Richard P. Allan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nikolaos Skliris.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Skliris, N., Marsh, R., Josey, S.A. et al. Salinity changes in the World Ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes. Clim Dyn 43, 709–736 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2131-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2131-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation