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Attribution of SST variability in global oceans and the role of ENSO

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Abstract

Based on a novel design of coupled model simulations where sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial tropical Pacific was constrained to follow the observed El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, while rest of the global oceans were free to evolve, the ENSO response in SSTs over the other ocean basins was analyzed. Conceptually the experimental setup was similar to discerning the contribution of ENSO variability to interannual variations in atmospheric anomalies. A unique feature of the analysis was that it was not constrained by a priori assumptions on the nature of the teleconnected response in SSTs. The analysis demonstrated that the time lag between ENSO SST and SSTs in other ocean basins was about 6 months. A signal-to-noise analysis indicated that between 25 and 50 % of monthly mean SST variance over certain ocean basins can be attributed to SST variability over the equatorial tropical Pacific. The experimental setup provides a basis for (a) attribution of SST variability in global oceans to ENSO variability, (b) a method for separating the ENSO influence in SST variations, and (c) understanding the contribution from other external factors responsible for variations in SSTs, for example, changes in atmospheric composition, volcanic aerosols, etc.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD, USA

    Arun Kumar, Bhaskar Jha & Hui Wang

  2. WYLE, Science, Technology and Engineering Group, Houston, TX, USA

    Bhaskar Jha & Hui Wang

Authors
  1. Arun Kumar
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  2. Bhaskar Jha
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  3. Hui Wang
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Correspondence to Arun Kumar.

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Kumar, A., Jha, B. & Wang, H. Attribution of SST variability in global oceans and the role of ENSO. Clim Dyn 43, 209–220 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1865-y

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