Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Variability of extreme events in the Colombian Pacific and Caribbean catchment basins

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper analyses the behavior of extreme events of surface precipitation and temperature inside the Pacific and Caribbean Catchment Basins in Colombia using several datasets such as observations, reconstructed data, NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses and data from the regional model REMO. We use an extreme value method that selects the time series excesses over a nonstationary threshold and adjusts them to a generalized Pareto distribution. The goodness of fit is evaluated through a test that includes the Cramer–von Mises, Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson–Darling statistics and the p values generated by parametric bootstrap resampling. The test not only evaluates the goodness of fit but also the threshold choice. The parameters are presented in maps that allow recognition of the features of the extreme behaviour inside the catchment basins, and differences and similarities between them. Maps of return periods for the maximum extreme events are also presented. A strong influence of the El Niño–Southern oscillation on the extreme events of both temperature and precipitation is found in the two catchment basins.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Balkema AA, de Haan L (1974) Residual life time at great age. Ann Probab 2:792–804

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB et al. (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Change 81:71–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buishand TA (1991) Extreme rainfall estimation by combining data from several sites. Hydrol Sci J 36:345–365. doi:10.1080/02626669109492519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvajal YE, Jiménez HE, Materón HM (1998) Incidencia del fenómeno del Niño en la hidroclimatología del valle del río Cauca-Colombia. B Inst Fr Étud Andines 27:743–751

    Google Scholar 

  • Castillo E, Hadi AS (1997) Fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to data. J Am Stat Assoc 92:1609–1620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CCSP (2008) Reanalysis of historical climate data for key atmospheric features: implications for attribution of causes of observed change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Climatic Data Center, Asheville

  • Chen M, Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA (2002) Global land precipiation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J Hydrometeorol 3:249–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiessi CM, Mulitza S, Patzold J, Wefer G, Marengo JA (2009) Possible impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the South American summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 36:L21707. doi:10.1029/2009GL039914

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choulakian V, Stephens MA (2001) Goodness-of-fit tests for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 43:478–484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleveland WS, Devlin SJ (1988) Locally-weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting. J Am Stat Assoc 83:596–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ (2008) Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data. J Clim 21:2072–2092. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1781.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • del Castillo J, Daoudi J (2009) Estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution. Stat Probab Lett 79:684–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Efron B, Tibshirani RJ (1993) An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman and Hall, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Eslava-Ramírez JA (1994) Climatología del Pacífico Colombiano. Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Geofísicas, Bogotá

    Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S, Jacob D (2007) Gradient in the climate change signal of European discharge predicted by a multi-model ensemble. Clim Change 81:309–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S, Machenhauer B, Jones R, Christensen OB (2004) Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe. Clim Dyn 23:547–567

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IDEAM (2001) Primera Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático. IDEAM, Bogotá

    Google Scholar 

  • IDEAM (2005) Atlas Climatológico de Colombia. IDEAM, Bogotá

    Google Scholar 

  • IDEAM (2010) Segunda Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático. IDEAM, Bogotá

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • Jacob D (2001) A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the baltic sea drainage basin. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77:61–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Andrae U, Elgered G et al. (2001) A comprehensive model intercomparison study investigating the water budget during the baltex-pidcap period. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77:19–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones PW (1999) First -and second- order conservative remapping schemes for grids in spherical coordinates. Mon Wea Rev 12:2204–2210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kjellström E, Bärring L, Jacob D et al (2007) Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe. Clim Change 81:249–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Legates DR, Willmott CJ (1990a) Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. Int J Climatol 10:111–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Legates DR, Willmott CJ (1990b) Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature. Theor Appl Climatol 41:11–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luceño A (2006) Fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to data using maximum goodness-of-fit estimators. Comput Stat Data Anal 51:904–917

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magrin G, Gay García C, Cruz Choque D et al (2007) Latin America climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 581–615

  • Makarieva AM, Gorshkov VG (2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1013–1033. doi:10.5194/hess-11-1013-2007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mesa OJ, Poveda G, Carvajal LF (1997) Introducción al clima de Colombia. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá

    Google Scholar 

  • Pabón-Caicedo JD (2003) El Cambio Climático global y su manifestación en Colombia. Cuadernos Geografía 12:111–119

    Google Scholar 

  • Pabón-Caicedo JD, Eslava-Ramírez JA, Gómez-Torres RE (2001a) Características de gran escala del clima de la América tropical. Meteorología Colombiana 4:39–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Pabón-Caicedo JD, Eslava-Ramírez JA, Gómez-Torres RE (2001b) Generalidades de la distribución espacial y temporal de la temperatura del aire y de la precipitación en colombia. Meteorología Colombiana 4:47–59

    Google Scholar 

  • Pickands J (1975) Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Ann Stat 3:119–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poveda G, Mesa OJ (1997) Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena. J Clim 10:2690–2702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poveda G, Mesa OJ, Vélez JI, Mantilla R, et al. (2007) HidroSIG: an interactive digital atlas of Colombia’s hydro-climatology. J Hydroinform 9:145–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poveda G, Álvarez DM, Rueda OA (2011) Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earths most important biodiversity hotspots. Clim Dyn 36:2233–2249. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0931-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reiss RD, Thomas M (2007) Statistical analysis of extreme values, 3rd edn. Birkhäuser, Basel

    Google Scholar 

  • Sakamoto MS, Ambrizzi T, Poveda G (2011) Moisture sources and life cycle of convective systems over Western Colombia. Adv Meteorol 2011:11. doi:10.1155/2011/890759

    Google Scholar 

  • Silvestri G, Silvestri G, Jacob D et al (2009) A high-resolution 43-year atmospheric hindcast for South America generated with the MPI regional model. Clim Dyn 32:693–709. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0423-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith JA (1989) Regional flood frequency analysis using extreme order statistics of the annual peak record. Water Resour Res 25:311–317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Snow JW (1976) The climate of northern South America. In: Schwerdtfeger W (ed) Climates of Central and South America, world survey of climatology, vol 12. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 295–403

    Google Scholar 

  • Sura P (2011) A general perspective of extreme events in weather and climate. Atmos Res 101:1–21. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uppala SM, Kälberg PW, Simmons AJ (2005) The era-40 re-analysis. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waylen PR, Poveda G (2002) El Niño-Southern Oscillation and aspects of western South America hydro-climatology. Hydrol Process 16:1247–1260. doi:10.1002/hyp.1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willmott CJ, Matsuura K (1995) Smart interpolation of annually averaged air temperature in the united states. J Appl Meteorol 34:2577–2586

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Stephens MA (2009) A new and efficient estimation method for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 51:316–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research uses data provided by Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies of Colombia (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia, IDEAM, in Spanish) and was founded by the Comité para el Desarrollo de la Investigación (CODI), Universidad de Antioquia (I. H. and B. A. R.), the Dirección Nacional de Investigaciones de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia Bogotá through the Convocatoria de Investigación Pacífico 2009 (A. B.-B.) and COLCIENCIAS through the Convocatoria Nacional para la Conformación del Banco de Proyectos de Investigación Científica o Tecnológica 521—2010 Modalidad Recuperación Contingente [National Call for the Constitution of the Scientific or Technological Research Project Databank 521 2010 Contingent Recovery Category], with resources from the Patrimonio Autónomo Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento para la Ciencia, la Tecnología y la Innovación Francisco José de Caldas [Autonomous Assets National Fund for the Finance of Science, Technology and Innovation Francisco José de Caldas]. We also thank Dr. Julio Cañón for a critical reading of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Grupo de Física y Astrofísica Computacional, FACom, Instituto de Física, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia

    Isabel Hoyos & Boris A. Rodríguez

  2. Grupo de Simulación del Sistema Climático Terrestre, Departamento de Física, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Cra. 30 No. 45-03, Bogotá, Colombia

    Astrid Baquero-Bernal

  3. Climate Service Center, Fischertwiete 1, 20095, Hamburg, Germany

    Daniela Jacob

  4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Daniela Jacob

Authors
  1. Isabel Hoyos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Astrid Baquero-Bernal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Daniela Jacob
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Boris A. Rodríguez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Astrid Baquero-Bernal.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hoyos, I., Baquero-Bernal, A., Jacob, D. et al. Variability of extreme events in the Colombian Pacific and Caribbean catchment basins. Clim Dyn 40, 1985–2003 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1487-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1487-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation