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Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

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Abstract

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Andreas Philipp and Christoph Beck (University of Augsburg, Germany) for the SANDRA algorithm and helpful information. The reviewers’ comments helped to further improve the quality of the paper. Marcel Küttel has been supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) through its National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR Climate) project PALVAREX 2. Jürg Luterbacher acknowledges support from the 7th EU Framework program ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of Water, http://www.acqwa.ch/, # 212250).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Marcel Küttel & Heinz Wanner

  2. Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany

    Jürg Luterbacher

  3. Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Marcel Küttel & Heinz Wanner

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  1. Marcel Küttel
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Correspondence to Marcel Küttel.

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Küttel, M., Luterbacher, J. & Wanner, H. Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends. Clim Dyn 36, 957–972 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0737-y

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