Abstract
The main objective of this study is to investigate the spatial–temporal variability and climate forcing influence during the last 21,000 years of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) and its components. TraCE-21k simulations, including Full and Single Forcings experiments, were employed. The identification of spatial variability patterns associated with the core of the monsoon region (SAMS) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), the main components of SAMS during the austral summer, is based on multivariate EOF analysis (precipitation, humidity, zonal and meridional wind). This analysis produces two main modes: the first one is the South American Large Scale Monsoon Index (LISAM), representing the primary oscillation mode for SAMS, and the second one is the SACZ mode, representing the SACZ oceanic portion variability. The TraCE-21k EOF modes demonstrated the ability to represent the SAMS and SACZ patterns when compared to the 20th Century reanalysis. LISAM time series proved to be an important tool for identifying monsoon precipitation variability, consistent with the regime changes recorded in climatic proxies. The freshwater pulses forcing in TraCE-21k are a determining factor for the observed changes in the precipitation regime, mainly during the periods between Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas. The results indicate that the observed and modeled SACZ southward shift in the Late Holocene is primarily modulated by insolation changes, with a stronger correlation observed since the Mid-Holocene period. Through wavelet analysis, it was noted that energy was transferred from low frequencies to high frequencies during the Bølling–Allerød period for the full forcing and freshwater pulse experiments in the Northern Hemisphere. The SAMS multidecadal variability increased from the early Holocene with direct influences of orbital forcing and ice cover.
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Data availability
The TraCE-21k datasets is available at https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/project/trace.html. The R20C datasets can be downloaded from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html. The GPCP precipitation data can be accessed at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank FAPESP for funding this study. The authors thank NOAA CPC and Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory for making available the data from the 20th Century Reanalysis, version 3, and from GPCP. They also thank NCAR for the availability of the TraCE-21k simulations.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) funded this study in the doctoral grant (2017/05285-4) and the PACMEDY/FAPESP project (2015/50686-1).
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Custódio, I.S., da Silva Dias, P.L., Wainer, I. et al. Changes in the South American Monsoon System components since the Last Glacial Maximum: a TraCE-21k perspective. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07139-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07139-9