Abstract
An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event (PHSE) occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008, which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties. To what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. Here, we found the three S2S models (ECMWF, CMA1.0 and CMA2.0) can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10-15-day lead, respectively. The success is attributed to the models’ capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes [the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)], especially in the ECMWF model. However, beyond the 15-day lead, the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this PHSE.
The bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day lead. On one hand, the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High, which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern China. On the other hand, the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO, leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport, and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern China.
The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation, indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events (e.g., the 2008 PHSE).
摘 要
2008 年初中国南方发生罕见持续性雪灾 (PHSE), 给国民经济带来重大损失, 造成严重人员伤亡. 动力模式能够提前多少天预测出此类极端灾害? 这对防灾减灾的部署和开展至关重要. 本研究揭示 ECMWF, CMA1.0 和 CMA2.0 三个次季节至季节预测业务模式都能够提前 10 天左右捕捉西伯利亚高压和热带大气季节内振荡 (MJO) 这两个关键系统的低频演变, 所以可提前 10 天 (10-15 天) 预测出 PHSE 期间中国南方降水 (降温) 的强度和空间分布. 而超过15天预报时效, 三个模式对 PHSE 均无预测技巧: 一方面, 模式无法预测出季节内西伯利亚高压异常的维持, 导致中国南方低温异常被低估; 另一方面, 模式无法正确预测 MJO 的抑制对流异常, 从而减弱了相应的南风及水汽输送异常, 导致中国南方降水被低估. 基于历史资料的奇异值分解, 本研究还揭示了关键环流系统与中国南方降水和温度在季节内尺度存在显著稳定关系, 表明西伯利亚高压和 MJO 这类次季节可预报来源无论对于中国南方极端雪灾事件 (类似 2008 年 PHSE) 还是一般性降温和降水事件都具普适意义.
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03 November 2021
An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1017-y
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Acknowledgements
The authors greatly appreciate the professional and earnest review made by the anonymous reviewers which for sure improved the quality of our manuscript. This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant Nos. 2018YFC1505905 & 2018YFC1505803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42088101, 41805048 and 41875069). Tim LI was supported by NSF AGS-1643297 and NOAA Grant NA18OAR4310298.
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Article Highlights
• The unprecedented prolonged heavy snow event in early 2008 over southern China included four intensive and successive subseasonal phases.
• The useful prediction skill of each phase of this extreme prolonged heavy snow event from ECMWF and CMA S2S prediction models is only up to 10 days.
• The failure to forecast the Siberian High and the MJO could cause the low subseasonal forecast skill of this event.
The original online version of this article was revised because in the original publication of this article, the blue lines (PCC skill of 500-hPa geopotential height over mid-high latitudes between the observation and ECWMF) in Fig. 8a was misplaced.
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Zhang, K., Li, J., Zhu, Z. et al. Implications from Subseasonal Prediction Skills of the Prolonged Heavy Snow Event over Southern China in Early 2008. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1873–1888 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0402-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0402-x