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Relationship between South China Sea precipitation variability and tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies in IPCC CMIP5 models during spring-to-summer transition

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Abstract

The present study evaluates the precipitation variability over the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship to tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies during spring-to-summer transition (April–May–June, AMJ) simulated by 23 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled models. Most of the models have the capacity to capture the AMJ precipitation variability in the SCS. The precipitation and SST anomaly (SSTA) distribution in the SCS, tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO), and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) domains is evaluated based on the pattern correlation coefficients between model simulations and observations. The analysis leads to several points of note. First, the performance of the SCS precipitation anomaly pattern in AMJ is model dependent. Second, the SSTA pattern in the TPO and TIO is important for capturing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability. Third, a realistic simulation of the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and local SST impacts is necessary for reproducing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability in some models. Fourth, the overly strong WEP SST impacts may disrupt the relationship between the SCS precipitation and the TPO-TIO SST. Further work remains to be conducted to unravel the specific reasons for the discrepancies between models and observations in various aspects.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Wenting Hu

  2. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Renguang Wu

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  1. Wenting Hu
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  2. Renguang Wu
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Correspondence to Renguang Wu.

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Hu, W., Wu, R. Relationship between South China Sea precipitation variability and tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies in IPCC CMIP5 models during spring-to-summer transition. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 32, 1303–1318 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-4250-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-4250-4

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