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Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

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Abstract

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Forest Service of Sardinia and the Sardinia Civil Protection for collaborating in this study. This work was partially funded by the GEMINA Project - MIUR/MATTM n. 232/2011, by the EXTREME Project (Legge Regione Sardegna 7/2007, CRP-25405), and by the Project “Modeling approach to evaluate fire risk and mitigation planning actions” (P.O.R. SARDEGNA F.S.E. 2007–2013, Asse IV Capitale umano, Linea di Attivita` l.3.1).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Avenida da Rovira Roure 191, 25198, Lleida, Spain

    Fermín J. Alcasena

  2. IAFENT Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Fermín J. Alcasena, Michele Salis & Donatella Spano

  3. Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DIPNET), University of Sassari, Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Michele Salis & Donatella Spano

  4. Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 75210 Coyote Road, Pendleton, OR, 97801, USA

    Alan A. Ager

  5. Institute of Biometeorology (IBIMET), National Research Council (CNR), Traversa La Crucca 3, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Bachisio Arca

  6. Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Avenida da Rovira Roure 191, 25198, Lleida, Spain

    Domingo Molina

Authors
  1. Fermín J. Alcasena
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  2. Michele Salis
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  3. Alan A. Ager
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  4. Bachisio Arca
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  5. Domingo Molina
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  6. Donatella Spano
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fermín J. Alcasena.

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Alcasena, F.J., Salis, M., Ager, A.A. et al. Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area. Environmental Management 55, 1200–1216 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0448-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0448-6

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