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Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure across a Mediterranean fire-prone area

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Abstract

We evaluated the spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure in a fire-prone Mediterranean area (Sardinia, Italy) in relation to changes in ignition patterns, weather, suppression activities, and land uses. We also used wildfire simulations to identify fine-scale changes in wildfire exposure of important features on the island. Sardinia experienced a sharp reduction in fire number and area burned between the periods 1980–1994 and 1995–2009. Despite this decrease, losses and fatalities from wildfires continue. This suggests that localized areas and seasons of high wildfire risk persist on the island. Our analysis showed (1) a reduction in area burned (60,000–20,000 ha/year) and ignitions (3,700–2,600 fires/year), (2) an advance of 15 days for the fire season peak, (3) an increase in spring temperatures, and (4) an increase in fire exposure for WUI areas. Little change was noted for land use types and associated fuels. Most likely the reduction in fire activity may be due to a combination of social factors and suppression capabilities. On the other hand, simulation modeling suggested pockets of high wildfire exposure in specific places. The combined empirical analyses and simulation modeling provided a robust approach to understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildfire risk on the island.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Forest Service of Sardinia for collaborating in this study. This work was partially funded by the GEMINA Project—MIUR/MATTM n. 232/2011, by the FUME Project—FP7/2007-2013, Grant Agreement 243888, and by the Project “Modeling approach to evaluate fire risk and mitigation planning actions” (P.O.R. SARDEGNA F.S.E. 2007-2013, Asse IV Capitale umano, Linea di Attività l.3.1).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DIPNET), University of Sassari, Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Michele Salis & Donatella Spano

  2. IAFENT Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Changes (CMCC), Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Michele Salis & Donatella Spano

  3. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, 3160 NE 3rd Street, Prineville, OR, 97754, USA

    Alan A. Ager

  4. Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 5775 Highway 10 West, Missoula, MT, 59808, USA

    Mark A. Finney

  5. National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Biometeorology (IBIMET), Traversa La Crucca 3, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Bachisio Arca

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  5. Donatella Spano
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Correspondence to Michele Salis.

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Salis, M., Ager, A.A., Finney, M.A. et al. Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure across a Mediterranean fire-prone area. Nat Hazards 71, 1389–1418 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0951-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0951-0

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