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Reevaluation of the 11 November 1858 Earthquake and Tsunami in Setúbal: A Contribution to the Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Southwest Iberia

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Abstract

The southwest Iberian Margin (SWIM) hosted a series of tsunamigenic earthquakes. However, strong magnitude earthquakes M > 7.0 are scarce and geological and geophysical evidence suggest that slow deformation occurs on a large area without a discrete plate boundary. The reanalysis of this event is crucial because of its location in a possible transition zone between the diffuse plate boundary and the stable continent regime. The 11 November 1858 earthquake in Setúbal, Portugal, with an estimated M ~ 7, ruined a large part of the city and was felt all over Portugal and large parts of the Iberian Peninsula. Earlier studies suggest an epicentre close to the shore, less than 50 km away, and there exists a description of a tsunami in Setúbal. We use macroseismic intensities and present a reevaluation of the event parameters: depth, epicentre, magnitude, and fault orientation. We select the candidate faults according to the epicentral area and plate kinematics and use scaling laws for the magnitude range. We use tsunami numerical modelling to check the tsunamigenic potential of the event. Finally, we compute the tsunami propagation and inundation for Setúbal for seven candidate scenarios and analyze waveform data obtained at virtual tide gauges. Our results favour an offshore inverse fault compatible with the tsunami observation corresponding to a reverse fault with a 40° strike angle at 13 km depth and a magnitude range of 6.8 ± 0.3.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) through projects UIDB/50019/2020 – Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL) and PD/BD/135070/2017. We are thankful for the fruitful discussion with Pedro Terrinha and Josep Batlló for providing copies of Rodriguez de la Torre (1990). We also would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback that significantly improved the manuscript. Finally, we thank the employees of the Municipality and Library of Setúbal for their support in consulting historical documents.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Martin Wronna & Maria Ana Baptista

  2. Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Maria Ana Baptista

  3. Instituto Portuguese Do Mar E da Atmosfera, Lisbon, Portugal

    Maria Ana Baptista & Jorge Miguel Miranda

Authors
  1. Martin Wronna
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  2. Maria Ana Baptista
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  3. Jorge Miguel Miranda
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Martin Wronna. He also wrote the first draft of the manuscript and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Maria Ana Baptista and Jorge Miguel Miranda reviewed and edited the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Maria Ana Baptista supervised the research.

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Correspondence to Martin Wronna.

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Wronna, M., Baptista, M.A. & Miranda, J.M. Reevaluation of the 11 November 1858 Earthquake and Tsunami in Setúbal: A Contribution to the Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Southwest Iberia. Pure Appl. Geophys. 178, 4717–4742 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-021-02885-x

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