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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan Territory Using an Areal Source Model

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Abstract

A seismic hazard map for the national seismic design code of Pakistan (i.e., Building Code of Pakistan) is derived using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach. In order to update the seismic code, an updated seismic zoning map is required that should be based on usage of the recent seismic hazard elements. PSHA of Pakistan is an essential and important milestone. For this purpose, the standard Cornell–McGuire (1968–1976) approach is employed, and the computations are made over a rectangular grid of 0.1°. The main features of this study include usage of a recently compiled earthquake catalogue, recent ground motion prediction equations and an updated seismic source model. The resulting ground motions are obtained as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration (SA) at T = 0.2 s and T = 1.0 s for 475-, 975- and 2475-year return periods (RPs) (evaluated for the flat rock site conditions). Results of the study show that seismic hazard in Pakistan is highest in its central and northern parts. In the central part near Quetta, severe seismic hazard (PGA 0.40 g) is observed. Among the important cities in Pakistan, Balakot city is likely to experience a PGA value of 0.36 g, while Islamabad, Peshawar and Chitral are likely to experience 0.33 g. The cities of Gilgit, Karachi and Gwadar experience ground motion values of 0.34, 0.26 and 0.29 g, respectively, for the 475-year return period (RP). It has also been observed that ground motion values show variation in the distribution and magnitude in contrast to the hazard map of national design code. The hazard map presented in this study is the improved seismic hazard zoning map of Pakistan that would be helpful in developing pre-disaster mitigation strategies and risk assessment studies in Pakistan. It is concluded that the seismic zoning map of the national seismic design code of Pakistan underestimates the ground motion values, and it should be updated or replaced.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge facilities and the financial support in the purchase of the EZ-FRISK software provided by the National Centre of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar, Pakistan, and the EZ-FRISK software, version 7.62, developed for earthquake ground motion prediction. Additionally, the comments and recommendations of the editor and of the anonymous reviewers of the paper are gratefully acknowledged for their constructive review, improving the quality of the article. The various online earthquake data agencies from which data was collected for the earthquake catalogue are acknowledged, including the International Seismological Centre (ISC), National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), World Data Centre (WDCse), India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Micro Seismic Studies Program (MSSP), seismic stations of Mangla and Tarbela dams and the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Muhammad Waseem

  2. National Centre of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Sarfraz Khan & M. Asif Khan

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Waseem, M., Khan, S. & Asif Khan, M. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan Territory Using an Areal Source Model. Pure Appl. Geophys. 177, 3577–3597 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02455-7

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