Abstract
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaike’s AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bowman D D, Ouillon G, Sammis C G,et al. 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept [J].J Geophys Res,103(B10): 24 359–24 372.
Brehm D J, Braile L W. 1998. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the New Madrid seismic zone [J].Bull Seis SocAmer,88(2): 564–580.
Bufe C G, Nishenko S P, Varnes D J. 1994. Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region [J].Pure Appl Geophys,142: 83–99.
Bufe C G, Varnes D J. 1993. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle in the Greater San Francisco Bay region zone [J].J Geophys Res,98: 9 871–9 983.
Compilation Group ofMathematic Manual. 1979.Mathematic Manual [M]. Beijing. Higher Education Press, 590–591 (in Chinese).
Du Jin-guan, Xiang Jing-yi, Dai Jian-hua. 1990.Time Series Analysis — Constructing Model and Prediction [M]. Hefei: Anhui Education Press, 237–238 (in Chinese).
Harte D. 1999.Documentation for the Statistical Seismology Library [M]. Wellington: Victoria University, 98–100.
Jaume S C, Sykes L R. 1999. Evolving towards a critical point: A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes [J].Pure Appl Geophys,155: 279–360.
Lynnr S, Steven C J. 1990. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area [J].Nature,348: 595–599.
Mogi K. 1969. Some features of recent seismic activity in and near Japan (2). Activity before and after great earthquakes [J].Bull Earthquake ResInst, Tokyo Univ,47: 395–417.
Ogata Y. 1989. Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis [J].Tectophysics,169: 159–174.
Ogata Y. 1998. Quiescence relative to the ETAS model, to appear in Zisin [J].JSeismol Soc Japan,2(10): 35–45.
Robinson R. 2000. A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes [J].Geophys J Int,140: 568–576.
Saleur H, Sammis C G, Sornette D. 1996. Discrete scale invariance, complex fractal dimensions and log-periodic fluctuations in seismicity [J].J Geophys Res,101: 17 661–17 677.
Schnabel R B, Koontz J E, Weiss B E. 1985. A modular system of algorithms for unconstrained minimization [J].ACM Trans Math Software,11: 419–440.
Shibata R. 1976. Selection of the order of an autoregressive model by Akaike’s Information Criterion [J].Biometrica,63(1): 117–126.
Sornette D, Sammis C G. 1995. Complex critical exponent from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake prediction [J].Geophys J Int,5: 607–619 (in France).
Varnes D J. 1989. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity [J].Pure Appl Geophys,130: 661–686.
Vere-Jones D, Robinson R, Yang W Z. 2001. Remarks on the accelerated moment release model: Prediction of model formulation, simulation and estimation [J].Goephys J Int,144: 517–531.
Wang Li-Feng, MA Li, Li Yong,et al. 2002. Research on seismic quiescence using magnitude cumulative sum method and its probability prediction [J].Chinese J Geophys,45(4): 711–722 (in Chinese).
Xu Cheng-xian, Chen Zhi-ping, Li Nai-cheng. 2002.Modern Optimization Method [M]. Beijing. Science Press, 90–102 (in Chinese).
Yang W, Vere-Jones D, Ma L. 2001. A proposed method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using the critical earthquake concept [J].J Geophys Res,106: 4 121–4 128.
Zhang Guo-min, Fu Zheng-xiang, DU Xie-tai. 2001.Introduction to Earthquake Prediction [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 27–28 (in Chinese).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40074013, 40134010), Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (042002) and the project during the Tenth Five-year Plan.
About this article
Cite this article
Feng, W., Li, M., Vere-Jones, D. et al. Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes. Acta Seismol. Sin. 17, 177–189 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02896932
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02896932