Abstract
The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or moreM≥7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994–1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type “A” zones), while others show deceleration (type “D” zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes—in 1957, 1964, and 1965—originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Beavan, J., Gilbert, L., andLarson, K. (1993),A GPS Reoccupation of the Shumagin Island, Alaska, EDM Network: Effects of the May 13, 1993 M w 7.1 Earthquake, EOS (Transactions, American Geophysical Union),74, 92.
Boyd, T. M., andLerner-Lam, A. L. (1988),Spatial Distribution of Turn-of-the-century Seismicity along the Alaska-Aleutian Arc, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.78, 636–650
Boyd, T. M., Taber, J. J., Lerner-Lam, A. L., andBeavan, J. (1988),Seismic Rupture and Arc Segmentation within the Shumagin Islands Seismic Gap, Alaska, Geophys. Res. Lett.15, 201–204.
Bufe, C. G., Harsh, P. W., andBurford, R. O. (1977),Steady-state Seismic Slip—A Precise Recurrence Model, Geophys. Res. Lett.4, 91–94.
Bufe, C. G., Jaumé, S. C., Nishenko, S. P., Sykes, L. R., andVarnes, D. J. (1990),Accelerating Moment Release in the Alaska Subduction Zone: Precursor to a Great Thrust Earthquake? EOS (Transactions, American Geophysical Union),71, 1451–1452.
Bufe, C. G., Nishenko, S. P., andVarnes, D. J. (1992),Clustering and Potential for large Earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian Region, Proceedings, Wadati Conference on Great Subduction Earthquakes, University of Alaska, 129–132.
Bufe, C. G., andVarnes, D. J. (1993),Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region, J. Geophys. Res.98, 9871–9883.
Davies, J., Sykes, L., House, L., andJacob, K. (1981),Shumagin Seismic Gap, Alaska Peninsula: History of Great Earthquakes, Tectonic Setting and Evidence for High Seismic Potential, J. Geophys. Res.86, 3821–3855.
Dmowska, R., andLovison-Golob, L. C. (1991),Stress Transfer and Seismic Phenomena in the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union,72, Supplement, 322.
Dmowska, R., andLovison, L. C. (1992),Influence of Asperities along Subduction Interfaces on the Stressing and Seismicity of Adjacent Areas, Tectonophysics211, 23–43.
Dmowska, R., Zheng, G., Rice, J. R., andLovison-Golob, L. C. (1992),Stress Transfer, Seismic Phenomena and Seismic Potential in the Shumagin Gap, Alaska, Proceedings, Wadati Conference on Great Subduction Earthquakes, University of Alaska, 150–152.
Engdahl, E. R., andRinehart, W. A.,Seismicity map of North America project. InNeotectonics of North America (Slemmons, D. B., Engdahl, E. R., Zoback, M. D., and Blackwell, D. D., eds.) (Boulder, Colorado, Geological Society of America 1991) Decade Map Vol. 1, 21–27.
Estabrook, C. H., andBoyd, T. M. (1992),The Shumagin Islands, Alaska, Earthquake of 31 May 1917, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.82, 755–773.
Hanks, T. H., andKanamori, H. (1979),A Moment Magnitude Scale, J. Geophys. Res.84, 2348–2350.
Houston, J. R., Whalin, R. W., Garcia, A. W., andButler, H. L. (1975),Effect of Source Orientation and Location in the Aleutian Trench on Tsunami Amplitude along the Pacific Coast of the Continental United States, Res. Rep. H-75-4, 48 pp., U.S. Army Waterways Exp. Station Hydraul. Lab.
Jacob, K. (1984),Estimates of Long-term Probabilities for Future Great Earthquakes in the Aleutians, Geophys. Res. Lett.11, 295–298.
Jaumé, S. C. (1992),Moment Release Rate Variations during the Seismic Cycle in the Alaska-Aleutians Subduction Zone, extended abstract, Proceedings, Wadati Conference on Great Subduction Earthquakes, University of Alaska, 123–128.
Jaumé, S. C., andEstabrook, C. H. (1992),Accelerating Seismic Moment Release and Outer Rise Compression: Possible Precursors to the Next Great Earthquake in the Alaska Peninsula Region, Geophys. Res. Lett.19, 345–348.
Jones, L. M., andMolnar, P. (1979),Some Characteristics of Foreshocks and their Possible Relationship to Earthquake Prediction and Premonitory Slip on Faults, J. Geophys. Res.84, 3596–3608.
Kanamori, H. (1977),The Energy Release in Great Earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res.82, 2981–2987.
Kanamori, H.,The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquakes. InEarthquake Prediction, an International Review, M. Ewing Ser. 4 (Simpson, D., and Richards, P. eds.) (American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C. 1981) pp. 1–19.
Kelleher, J. A. (1970),Space-time Seismicity of the Alaska-Aleutian Seismic Zone, J. Geophys. Res.75, 5745–5756.
Kelleher, J. A., Sykes, L. R., andOliver, J. (1973)Possible Criteria for Predicting Earthquake Locations and their Applications to Major Plate Boundaries of the Pacific and Caribbean, J. Geophys. Res.78, 2547–2585.
Lahr, J. C., Page, R. A., Stephens, C. D., andChristensen, D. H. (1988),Unusual Earthquake the Gulf of Alaska and Fragmentation of the Pacific Plate, Geophys. Res. Lett.15, 1483–1486.
Lisowski, M., Savage, J. C., Prescott, W. H., andGross, W. K. (1988),Absence of Accumulation in the Shumagin Seismic Gap, Alaska, 1980–1987, J. Geophys. Res.93, 7909–7922.
Nishenko, S. P. (1989),Circum-Pacific Seismic Potential 1989–1999, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 89-95, map.
Nishenko, S. P., andJacob, K. H. (1990),Seismic Potential of the Queen Charlotte-Alaska-Aleutian Seismic Zone, J. Geophys. Res.95, 2511–2532.
Shimazaki, K., andNakata, T. (1980),Time-predictable Recurrence Model for Large Earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett.7, 279–282.
Sykes, L. R. (1971),Aftershock Zones of Great Earthquakes, Seismicity Gaps, and Earthquake Prediction for Alaska and the Aleutians, J. Geophys. Res.76, 8021–8041.
Sykes, L. R., Kisslinger, J. B., House, L., Davies, J. N., andJacob, K. H. (1981),Rupture zones and repeat times of great earthquakes along the Alaska-Aleutian arc, 1784–1980. InEarthquake Prediction, an International Review, M. Ewing Ser. 4 (Simpson, D., and Richards, P., eds.) (Washington, D.C., American Geophysical Union 1981) pp. 73–80.
Sykes, L. R., andJaumé, S. C. (1990),Seismic Activity on Neighboring Faults as a Long-term Precursor to Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area, Nature348, 595–599.
Tanioka, T., Satake, K., Ruff, L., andGonzales, F. (1993),Fault Parameters and Tsunami Excitation of the May 13, 1993 Shumagin Islands Earthquake, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union74, 92.
Varnes, D. J. (1983),Time-deformation Relations in Creep to Failure of Earth Materials, Proc. 7th Southeast Asian Geotechnical Conf.2, 107–130.
Varnes, D. J. (1989),Predicting Earthquakes by Analyzing Accelerating Precursory Seismic Activity, Pure Appl. Geophys.4, 661–686.
Zowalik, Z., andMurty, T. S. (1989),On Some Future Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean, Natural Hazards1, 349–369.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bufe, C.G., Nishenko, S.P. & Varnes, D.J. Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region. PAGEOPH 142, 83–99 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00875969
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00875969