Abstract
Estimating the Costs and Benefits of EMU: The Impact of External Shocks on Labour Markets. — Discussions of costs and benefits of EMU usually rely on the optimum currency area approach: when external shocks hit the economy, it is easier to adjust the exchange rate than domestic prices or wages. We find that external shocks have little impact on unemployment, but are more important to manufacturing employment. Taking into account potential shock absorbers (exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy) leaves results unchanged. By contrast, internal shocks, strongly influence (un)employment. The loss of the exchange rate instrument will not lead to massive unemployment after external shocks.
Zusammenfassung
Schätzung von Kosten und Nutzen aus der EWU. Die Auswirkung externer Schocks auf Arbeitsmärkte. — Diskussionen über Kosten und Nutzen der EWU beruhen gewöhnlich auf dem Ansatz des optimalen Währungsraumes. Wenn eine Volkswirtschaft von externen Schocks betroffen wird, ist es einfacher, den Wechselkurs anzupassen als die heimischen Preise und Löhne. Die Verfasser finden heraus, daβ externe Schocks wenig Einfluβ auf die Arbeitslosigkeit haben, aber wichtiger für die Beschäftigung in der Industrie sind. Berücksichtigt man potentielle Schockdämpfer (Wechselkurse, Fiskal- und Geldpolitik), bleiben die Ergebnisse unverändert. Dagegen beeinflussen interne Schocks die Beschäftigung (Arbeitslosigkeit) erheblich. Der Verlust des Instruments der Wechselkurse wird nach externen Schocks nicht zu massiver Arbeitslosigkeit führen.
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