Abstract
Discrete Plant-Location Decisions in an Applied General-Equilibrium Model of Trade Liberalization. - This paper makes a first step toward a more realistic approach to increasing-returns trade models in which firms face discrete choices about the numbers and locations of their plants. The model is applied to the North American auto industry in the NAFTA context. Results include: (1) production appears to be excessively geographically diversified initially; (2) autos are produced in fewer locations as trade barriers are lowered; (3) a “non-monotonicity“ case is produced in which a plant is first closed and then reopened as trade barriers are progressively lowered; (4) an example of the misleading nature of marginalist analysis is presented in which plants in Canada and Mexico increase production when locations are fixed but close down when locations are endogenous and optimized.
Zusammenfassung
Diskrete Entscheidungen über Produktionsstandorte in einem auf die Handelsliberalisierung angewandten Modell des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts. -Dieser Aufsatz ist ein erster Schritt in Richtung auf eine realistischere Betrachtungsweise, bei der Firmen diskrete Entscheidungen über Zahl und Standort ihrer Betriebe zu treffen haben. Das Modell wird angewandt auf die Automobilindustrie im Rahmen der NAFTA. Es ergeben sich folgende Resultate: (1) Die Produktion ist anfangs geographisch sehr stark diversifiziert; (2) die Zahl der Produktionsstandorte für Automobile geht zurück, wenn die Handelsbarrieren abgebaut werden; (3) es entsteht ein “nicht-monotoner” Fall, in dem ein Betrieb zunächst geschlossen und dann, wenn die Handelsschranken nach und nach gesenkt werden, wieder eröffnet wird; (4) Betriebe in Kanada und Mexiko erhöhen die Produktion, wenn die Standorte fixiert sind, werden aber geschlossen, wenn die Standorte endogen festgelegt und optimiert werden.
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