Accept/reject decisions and failure prediction for structural ceramics: Application to failure from voids

Abstract

A general probabilistic method for reaching accept/reject decisions and failure prediction based on nondestructive evaluation procedures is described. The method is illustrated for ceramic materials that fail by the activation of microcracks located at void surfaces. The inspection procedure used for the analysis is the long wavelength ultrasonic method. The analysis indicates influences on the decision level and on the false-reject probability of variations in the signal-to-noise ratio and in the preexistent void population. The ultrasonic inspection is shown to exert a relatively minor influence on the false-reject probability, even for low signal-to-noise ratios, low stresses, and a widely dispersed void population, because of the intrinsic variability of the selected failure process. More encouraging results concerning the utility of NDE are anticipated to apply to other failure mechanisms in ceramics.