Abstract
Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise R Δt during the ascending phase, where R M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and R Δt is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (Δt) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r ≃ 0.9 and a standard error S yx ≲ 20. During the first four intervals, the expected R M and the observed R M were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time.
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Wilson, R.M. Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number. Sol Phys 117, 179–186 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00148581
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00148581