Abstract
A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fiffty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bagrov, N.A.: 1965, ‘On the distribution of monthly precipitation’, Trudy TsIP (Trans. of the Central Institute for Weather Forecasting), 139, 3–21.
Baker, C.B., Quayle, R.G., and Wanlin, W.: 1995, ‘The influence of night time cloud cover on the observed minimum temperature in China’, Atmos. Res., 37 (1–3), 27–35.
Beniston, M., Rebetez, M., Giorgi, F., and Marinucci, M.R.: 1994, ‘An analysis of regional climatic change in Switzerland’, Theor. Appl. Clim., 49, 135–159.
Bogdanova, E. G.: 1987, ‘On the possibility of quality control and restoring the information about the number of days with precipitation of different intensity’, Transactions of the Main Geophysical Observatory, Leningrad, 512, 16–19 (in Russian).
Bogdanova, E.G. and Mestcherskaya, A.V.: 1998, ‘Estimation of the effects of wetting losses on the homogeneity of annual precipitation’, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology (in press).
Bootsma, A.: 1994, ‘Long-term (100 yr) climatic trends for agriculture at selected locations in Canada’ , Climatic Change, 26, 65–88.
Bruun, I.: 1949, ‘The precipitation in Norway 1895–1943, Vol. 1’, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, 114 pp. (In Norwegian with English summary).
Buishand, T.A.: 1978, ‘Some remarks on the use of daily rainfall models’, J. Hydrol., 36, 295–308.
Crutcher, H.L., McKay, G.F., and Fulbright, D.C.: 1977, ‘A note on a gamma distribution computer program and computer produced graphs’, NOAA Tech. Rep. EDS 24, Environmental Data Service, NOAA, Dept. Of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 55 pp. + Appendices.
Crutcher, H.L. and Joiner, R.L.: 1980, ‘Gamma distribution shape parameter bias’, NOAA Tech. Memorandum EDIS 29, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 38 pp.
Easterling, D.R. and Peterson, T.C.: 1995, ‘A new method for detection undocumented discontinuities in climatological time series’, Internat. J. Climatol., 15, 369–377.
Easterling, D.R.: 1997, ‘Data for studying changes in climate extremes over the USA and Mexico’, Proc. of GCOS Workshop “Indicators and indices for monitoring trends in climate extremes”, Asheville, NC, June 3–6, 1997.
Easterling, D.R., Diaz, H.F., Douglas, A.V., Hogg, W.D., Kunkel, K.E., Rogers, J.C., and Wilkinson, J.F.: 1998, ‘Long-term observations for monitoring climate extremes in the Americas’, Climatic Change (this issue).
Førland, E. J. and 14 others: 1996, ‘Changes in “normal” precipitation in the North Atlantic Region’, DNMI Report 31/96 KLIMA. 27 pp.
Fortuniak, K.:1996, ‘Stochastic and deterministic aspects of variability of the selected climate elements’ (in Polish), PhD Thesis. 166 pp. (Available from The Library of the University of Lodz, ul. Jana Matejki 34/38, 90–237, Lodz, Poland).
Georgievsky, V. Yu., Zhuravin, S.A., and Ezhov, A. V.: 1995, ‘Assessment of trends in hydrometeorological situation on the Great Russian Plain under the effect of climate variations’ , AGU Proc., Fifteen Annual Hydrology Days, April 3–7, 1995, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, 4758.
Georgievsky, V.Yu., Ezhov, A.V., Shalygin, A.L., Shiklomanov, I.A., and Shiklomanov, A.I.: 1996, ‘Evaluation of possible climate change impact on hydrological regime and water resources of the former USSR rivers’, Russian Meteorol. and Hydrol., 1996 (11), 89–99.
Goodison, B.E. and Louie, P.Y.T.: 1986, ‘Canadian methods for precipitation measurement and correction’, WMO/TD-No. 104. Instruments and observing methods Report No. 25. Papers presented at the Workshop on the Correction of Precipitation Measurements, Zürich, Switzerland, 141–145.
Gray, D.M. and Male, D.H. (Eds.): 1981, ‘Handbook of Snow’, Pergamon Press, 776 pp.
Groisman P.Ya.: 1991, ‘Data on present-day precipitation changes in the extratropical part of the Northern hemisphere’, p.297–310 in: Schlesinger M.E. (editor) “Greenhouse — Gas — Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations”. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 615 p.
Groisman, P.Ya., Koknaeva, V.V., Belokrylova, T.A., Karl, T.R.: 1991, ‘Overcoming biases of precipitation measurement: a history of the USSR experience’, B3ull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 72, 1725–1733.
Groisman, P.Ya. and Easterling, D.R.: 1994, ‘Variability and trends of precipitation and snowfall over the United States and Canada’, J. Climate, 7, 184–205.
Groisman, P.Ya. and Legates, D.R.: 1995, ‘Documenting and detecting long-term precipitation trends: where we are and what should be done’ , Climatic Change, 31, 601–622.
Groisman, P.Ya., Karl, T.R., Easterling, D.R., Knight, R.W., and Jamason, P.B.: 1997, ‘Changes in the probability of extreme precipitation: Why they can be so prominent in ongoing climatic changes’, Paper presented at the GCOS Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Monitoring Trends in Climate Extremes (Asheville, NC, June 3–6, 1997).
Guttman, N.B., Hosking, J.R.M., and Wallis, J. R.: 1993, ‘Regional precipitation quantile values for the Continental United States computed from L-moments’, J. Climate, 6, 2326–2340.
Hanssen-Bauer, I.: 1994, ‘Regional trends in Norwegian precipitation series’, In: “Climate Variations in Europe”, Proceedings of the European Workshop on Climate Variations held in Kirkkonummi (Majvik), Finland, 15–18 May 1994. Painatuskeskus, Helsinki, 170–182.
Hanssen-Bauer, I. and Førland, E. J.: 1994, ‘Homogenizing long Norwegian precipitation series’, J. Climate, 7, 1001–1013.
Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E. J., Tveito, O.E., and Nordli, P. Ø.: 1997, ‘Estimating regional precipitation trends. Comparison of two methods’, Nordic Hydrology, 28, 21–36.
Hennessy, K.J., Gregory, J.M., and Mitchell, J.F.B.: 1997, ‘Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions’, Clim. Dyn., 13(9) , 667–680.
Hennessy, K.J., Suppiah, R., and Page, C.M.: 1998, ‘Australian rainfall changes, 1910–1995’, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., (in press).
Hopkins, L.C. and Holland, G.J.: 1997, ‘Australian heavy-rain days and associated East Coast cyclones: 1958–92’, J. Climate, 10, 621–635.
Hughes, P.Y., Mason, E.H., Karl, T.R., and Brower, W.A.: 1992, ‘United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data’, ORNL/CDIAC-50, NDP-042, ESD Publ. No. 3778, Carbon Dioxide Information Data Center, Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN. 54 pp. + Appendices.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1990, ‘Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment’, Ed. J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, Cambridge University Press N.Y., 362 pp.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1996, ‘Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. The Second IPCC Scientific Assessment’, J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callendar, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Eds., Cambridge University Press N.Y., 572 pp.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1998, ‘The Regional Impacts of Climate Change’, R Watson, M. Zinyowera, R. Moss and R. Dokkien, Eds., Cambridge University Press N.Y., 517 pp.
Iwashima, T. and Yamamoto, R.: 1993, ‘A statistical analysis of the extreme events: Long-termn trend of heavy daily precipitation’, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 71, 637–640.
Jones, R.G., Murphy, J.M., Noguer, M., and Keen, A.B., : 1997, ‘Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional-climate model. II. Comparison of driving and regional model responses to a doubling of carbon dioxide’, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 265–292.
Karl, T.R., Groisman, P.Ya., Knight, R.W., and Heim, R.R. Jr.: 1993, ‘Recent variations of snow cover and snowfall in North America and their relation to precipitation and temperature variations’, J. Climate, 6, 1327–1344.
Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., and Plummer, N.: 1995, ‘Trends in highfrequency climate variability in the twentieth century’, Nature, 377, 217–220.
Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R., and Quayle, R.G.: 1996, ‘Indices of climatic change for the United States’, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 279–292.
Karl, T.R. and Knight, R.W. 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the USA. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 231–241.
Katz, R.W.: 1977, ‘Precipitation as a chain-dependent process’, J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 671–676.
Katz, R.W.: 1998, ‘Extreme value theory for precipitation: Implications for climate change’, AMS Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium on Global Change Studies, Phoenix, Arizona, 11–16 Jan. 1998, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Boston, Mass., 11–15.
Katz, R.W. and Brown, B.G.:1992, ‘Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages’, Climatic Change, 21, 289–302.
Kendall, M.G. and Stuart, A.: 1979, ‘The Advance Theory of Statistics. Vol. 2, Inference and Relationship’, Ch. Griffin and Co., London. 748 pp.
Kozuchowski, K.:1985, ‘Variation in precipitation in the years 1881–1980 in Poland’ (in Polish with English abstract), Acta Geographica Lodziensia, 48, 158 pp.
Lavery, B. M., Kariko, A. P., and Nicholls, N.: 1992, ‘A high-quality historical rainfall data set for Australia’, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 40, 33–39.
Lavery, B.M., Joung, G., and Nicholls, N.: 1997, ‘An extended high-quality historical rainfall dataset for Australia’, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 46, 27–38.
Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F., and Wallis, J.R.: 1994, ‘Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88’, J. Climate, 7, 586–607.
Melkis, E. and Hogg, W.D.: 1997, ‘Rehabilitation and analysis of Canadian daily precipitation time series’, Proceedings of the 10th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology, October 20–23, 1997, Reno, Nevada, 300–304.
Metcalfe, J.R., Routledge, B., and Devine, K.: 1997, ‘Rainfall measurements in Canada: Changing observational methods and archive adjustment procedures’, J. Climate, 10, 92–101.
Mooley, D. A.: 1973, ‘Gamma distribution probability model for Asian summer monsoon monthly rainfall’, Mon. Wea. Rev., 101 (2) , 160–176.
Plummer, N., Salinger, M.J., Nicholls, N., Suppiah, R., Hennessy, K.J., Leighton, R.M., Trewin, B.C., and Lough, J.M., : 1998, ‘Twentieth century trends in climate extreme over the Australian region and New Zealand’, Climatic Change (this issue).
Plummer, N., Trewin, B.C., Hicks, R., Nicholls, N., Torok, S.J., Lavery, B.M., and Leighton, R.M.: 1997, ‘Australian data for documenting changes in climate extremes’, Paper presented at the GCOS Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Monitoring Trends in Climate Extremes (Asheville, NC, June 3–6, 1997).
Razuvaev, V.N., Apasova, E.G., and Martuganov, R.A.: 1993, ‘Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 223 USSR Stations’, ORNL/CDIAC-56, NDP-040, ESD Publ. No. 4194, Carbon Dioxide Information Data Center, Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN. 47 pp. + Appendices.
Richardson, C.W.: 1981, ‘Stochastic generation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation’, Water Resour. Res., 17(1) , 182–190.
Ross, R.J. and Elliot, W.P.: 1996, ‘Tropospheric water vapor climatology and trends over North America: 1973–93’, J. Climate, 9, 3561–3574.
Schaer, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, C., and Davies, H.C.: 1996, ‘Surrogate climate change scenarios for regional climate models’, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 669–672.
Sevruk, B.: 1982, ‘Methods of correction for systematic error in point precipitation measurement for operational use’, Operational Hydrology Report No. 21, Publ. 589, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 91 pp.
Shyer, Ts. A.: 1976, ‘Precipitation Over the USSR Territory, ’ (in Russian), Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 302 pp.
Suppiah, R. and Hennessy, K.J.: 1996, ‘Trends in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall in tropical Australia and links with the Southern Oscillation’, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 45, 1–17.
Suppiah, R. and Hennessy, K.J.: 1998, ‘Trends in total rainfall, heavy rainfall events, and number of dry events in Australia, 1910–1990’, Int. J. Climatol., (in press).
Struzer, L.R.: 1975, ‘On the changes of the long-term precipitation values with the transfer to 6-hourly observations’, Transactions of the Main Geophysical Observatory, 341, 65–72.
Thom, H.C.S.: 1951, ‘A frequency distribution for precipitation (abstract)’, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 32 (10) , 397.
Thom, H.C.S.: 1958, ‘A note on the gamma distribution’, Mon. Wea. Rev., 86 (4) , 117–122.
Tsonis, A.A.: 1996, ‘Widespread increases in multi-decadal variability of precipitation over the last century’, Nature, 382, 700–702.
Vinnikov, K.Ya., Groisman, P.Ya., and Lugina, K.M.: 1990, ‘The empirical data on modern global climate changes (temperature and precipitation)’, J. Climate, 3, 662–677.
Ye, P.Z. et al.: 1996, ‘Study on patterns and causes of draught and flood in the Yangtze and Yellow River Valley’, Shandong Sci. and Tech. Press, 387 pp.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1999 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Groisman, P.Y. et al. (1999). Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change. In: Karl, T.R., Nicholls, N., Ghazi, A. (eds) Weather and Climate Extremes. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9265-9_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9265-9_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-5223-0
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-9265-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive