Abstract
Considerations about the possible future of AIDS and its economic impacts are often struck by considerable uncertainty of data, both for assumptions (like the number of people infected) and for results (like the total expenditures for care last year). Theoretical background and consequently functional properties of epidemiologic as well as impact elements are not yet (well) understood. Time series to be used for an empirical specification of functions are often too short to derive reliable results. Stochastic approaches show tremendously increasing confidence intervals. Most of these problems already apply to individual elements of predicting economic impacts (like the number of people infected), let alone interrelated aspects (like the number of people infected, treatment patterns and transition probabilities).
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Leidl, R. (1990). Model-Based Scenarios to Describe Economic Impacts of AIDS: The Role of Case-Mix. In: Schwefel, D., Leidl, R., Rovira, J., Drummond, M.F. (eds) Economic Aspects of AIDS and HIV Infection. Health Systems Research. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-84089-0_26
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-84089-0_26
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