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Projecting Changes of the Asian Summer Monsoon Through the Twenty-First Century

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The Monsoons and Climate Change

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Abstract

This chapter provides an updated review of our current understanding of future changes in the Asian summer monsoon. It is based on recent studies that include analysis of the state-of-the-art CMIP5 model simulations together with projections of extremes and regional-scale climate from higher-resolution models. It is projected that both the amount and intensity of Asian summer monsoon rainfall are likely to increase under global warming, and that the rate of increase will be higher than that in other monsoon regions, which suggests a substantial increase in the risk of extreme rainfall events.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for making the WCRP CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model datasets available to us. This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2A-1201 and 2-1503) of the Ministry of the Environment and the SOUSEI Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. We would also like to thank Osamu Arakawa of the University of Tsukuba for data management.

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  1. Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan

    Hirokazu Endo

  2. University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8572, Japan

    Akio Kitoh

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  1. Hirokazu Endo
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Correspondence to Hirokazu Endo .

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  1. Dept. of Geography and Earth Res. Inst., University of California, SANTA BARBARA, California, USA

    Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho

  2. Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA

    Charles Jones

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Endo, H., Kitoh, A. (2016). Projecting Changes of the Asian Summer Monsoon Through the Twenty-First Century. In: de Carvalho, L., Jones, C. (eds) The Monsoons and Climate Change. Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_4

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