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Near-repeat shootings in contemporary Sweden 2011 to 2015

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Abstract

The concept of near-repeat patterns illustrates how crimes are clustered in space and time, with a crime event often shortly followed by another crime nearby. This study aims first to describe the frequency in shootings; second, to analyse the patterns of near-repeat shootings; and third, to validate a near-repeat calculator in the three largest cities in Sweden. Data were geocoded from three registries on shootings administered by the police departments in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö from 2011 to 2015, and were analysed using a free near-repeat calculator. There were 948 shootings, 378 of which involved at least one injury or death (40%). The relative risk of firearm-perpetrated homicides was almost 2.5 times higher in Malmö compared to Stockholm, but almost half of the shootings occurred in Stockholm. Near-repeat patterns were found with a significantly increased risk of a new shooting in all three cities, but were weaker in Gothenburg.

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Notes

  1. The serial shooter that operated in Malmö in 2003 to 2010 was apprehended before the observation period of this study and has not contributed with any shootings.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by an MSB – Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency grant to the Institute for Future Studies (2016-486/7045).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, and National Board of Forensic Medicine, Box 4044, 141 04, Huddinge, Sweden

    Joakim Sturup

  2. Department of Sociology, Stockholm University and Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden

    Amir Rostami

  3. Malmö University, Malmö, Sweden

    Manne Gerell

  4. Swedish National Police, Stockholm, Sweden

    Anders Sandholm

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  1. Joakim Sturup
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  2. Amir Rostami
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  3. Manne Gerell
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  4. Anders Sandholm
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Correspondence to Joakim Sturup.

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Appendix

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Sturup, J., Rostami, A., Gerell, M. et al. Near-repeat shootings in contemporary Sweden 2011 to 2015. Secur J 31, 73–92 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-017-0089-y

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