Security Journal

, Volume 31, Issue 1, pp 73–92 | Cite as

Near-repeat shootings in contemporary Sweden 2011 to 2015

  • Joakim SturupEmail author
  • Amir Rostami
  • Manne Gerell
  • Anders Sandholm
Original Article


The concept of near-repeat patterns illustrates how crimes are clustered in space and time, with a crime event often shortly followed by another crime nearby. This study aims first to describe the frequency in shootings; second, to analyse the patterns of near-repeat shootings; and third, to validate a near-repeat calculator in the three largest cities in Sweden. Data were geocoded from three registries on shootings administered by the police departments in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö from 2011 to 2015, and were analysed using a free near-repeat calculator. There were 948 shootings, 378 of which involved at least one injury or death (40%). The relative risk of firearm-perpetrated homicides was almost 2.5 times higher in Malmö compared to Stockholm, but almost half of the shootings occurred in Stockholm. Near-repeat patterns were found with a significantly increased risk of a new shooting in all three cities, but were weaker in Gothenburg.


Near-repeat Shootings Firearms Guns Gangs 



This research was supported by an MSB – Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency grant to the Institute for Future Studies (2016-486/7045).


  1. Ariel, B., and Partridge, H. Forthcoming. Predictable policing: Measuring the crime control benefits of hotspots policing at bus stops. Journal of Quantitative Criminology.Google Scholar
  2. Abt, T., and Winship, C. 2016. What works in reducing community violence: A meta-review and field-study for the northern triangle. USAID Report, Task order AID-OOA-TO-13-00047.Google Scholar
  3. Bernasco, W. 2008. Them again? Same-offender involvement in repeat and near repeat burglaries. European Journal of Criminology 5 (4): 411–431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Block, S., and S. Fujita. 2013. Patterns of near repeat temporary and permanent motor vehicle thefts. Crime Prevention and Community Safety 15 (2): 151–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bowers, K.J., and S.D. Johnson. 2004. Who commits near repeats? A test of the boost explanation. Western Criminology Review 5 (3): 12–24.Google Scholar
  6. Braga, A., and D. Weisburd. 2012. The effects of “pulling levers” focused deterrence strategies on crime. Campbell Systematic Revies 2012: 6.Google Scholar
  7. Butts, J.A., C.G. Roman, L. Bostwick, and J.R. Porter. 2015. Cure violence: a public health model to reduce gun violence. Annual Review of Public Health 36: 39–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Dedel, K. 2007. Drive-by Shootings. U.S. Department of Justice Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.Google Scholar
  9. European Union. 2010. The Stockholm programme - An open and secure europeserving and protecting citizens [Official Journal C 115 of 4.5.2010].Google Scholar
  10. Farrell, G. 2005. Progress and prospects in the prevention of repeat victimization. Handbook of crime prevention and community safety, 143–170.Google Scholar
  11. Granath, S. 2012. Homicide in Sweden. In Handbook of European homicide research, 405–419. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
  12. Haberman, C.P., and J.H. Ratcliffe. 2012. The predictive policing challenges of near repeat armed street robberies. Policing 6 (2): 151–166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hedlund, J., T. Masterman, and J. Sturup. 2016. Intra-and extra-familial child homicide in Sweden 1992–2012: a population-based study. Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 39: 91–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hernandez, P. 2013. Is crime contagious? A near-repeat pattern analysis of burglary incidents in Winston-Salem, 2012. Journal of Justice Studies, 3.Google Scholar
  15. Holgersson, S. 2008 Dialogpolis – Erfarenheter, iakttagelser och möjligheter 2002-2007. Växjö University studies in policing Nr 002-2008. Växjö university.Google Scholar
  16. Hoppe, L. 2016. Near repeat burglary patterns in Malmö. A geospatial analysis of near repeat victimization patterns in Malmö between 2009 and 2014. Thesis in Criminology, Malmö University.Google Scholar
  17. Johnson, D. 2013. The space/time behaviour of dwelling burglars: finding near repeat patterns in serial offender data. Applied Geography 41: 139–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Klein, M.W. 1995. The American street gang: Its nature, prevalence and control. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  19. Koper, C.S., and E. Mayo-Wilson. 2012. Police strategies to reduce illegal possession and carrying of firearms: effects on gun crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews 2012: 11.Google Scholar
  20. Lasley, J.R. 1998. “Designing Out” gang homicides and street assaults. US Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, National Institute of Justice.Google Scholar
  21. Leinfelt, F., and A. Rostami. 2012. The Stockholm gang model: PANTHER. Stockholm: Erlander AB.Google Scholar
  22. Liem, M., and W.A. Pridemore. 2012. Handbook of European homicide research: patterns, explanations, and country studies. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Lindström, P., and Martinez-Olsson, E. 2016. Färre villainbrott med Märk-DNA. En utvärdering av en försöksverksamhet. Malmö Högskola, Fakulteten för Hälsa och Samhälle. FoU-Rapport 2016:3.Google Scholar
  24. Lockwood, B. 2012. The presence and nature of a near-repeat pattern of motor vehicle theft. Security Journal 25 (1): 38–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Marchione, E., and S.D. Johnson. 2013. Spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of maritime piracy. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 50 (4): 504–524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. National Council for Crime Prevention. 2011. Det dödliga våldets utveckling. Stockholm: Brottsförebyggande rådet.Google Scholar
  27. National Council for Crime Prevention 2012. Brottslighet och trygghet i Malmö, Stockholm och Göteborg. En kartläggning. Brottsförebyggande rådet, StockholmGoogle Scholar
  28. National Council for Crime Prevention. 2015a. Det dödliga våldet i Sverige 1990–2014: En beskrivning av utvecklingen med särskilt fokus på skjutvapenvåldet. Stockholm: Brottsförebyggande rådet.Google Scholar
  29. National Council for Crime Prevention 2015b. Skjutningar 2006 och 2014 - omfattning, spridning och skador. BRÅ Kortanalys 7/2015.Google Scholar
  30. Pease, K. 1998. Repeat victimisation: Taking stock. Crime detection and Prevention Series, Paper 90. Home Office: London.Google Scholar
  31. Ratcliffe, J.H., and G.F. Rengert. 2008. Near-repeat patterns in Philadelphia shootings. Security Journal 21 (1–2): 58–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ratcliffe, J.H. 2009 Near Repeat Calculator (version 1.3). Temple University, Philadelphia, PA and the National Institute of Justice, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  33. Rostami, A. 2016a. Criminal Organizing: Studies in the sociology of organized crime. Stockholm University.Google Scholar
  34. Rostami, A. 2016b. Våldets betydelse för organisering av kriminella gäng. In Edling and Rostamis, eds. Våldets sociala dimension. Studentlitteratur, Lund.Google Scholar
  35. Short, M.B., M.R. D’Orsogna, P.J. Brantingham, and G.E. Tita. 2009. Measuring and modeling repeat and near-repeat burglary effects. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 25 (3): 325–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Sturup, J. and Granath S. in review Unsolved homicides in Sweden 1990 to 2013 with special reference to firearm-perpetrated homicides.Google Scholar
  37. Sturup, J., and P. Lindqvist. 2014. Psychosis and homicide in Sweden—A time trend analysis 1987–2006. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 13 (1): 1–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Sturup, J., D. Karlberg, and M. Kristiansson. 2015. Unsolved homicides in Sweden: a population-based study of 264 homicides. Forensic Science International 257: 106–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Swedish National Police 2013. Shootings in the three metropolitan areas. Intelligence report HD110/13 [public version], Swedish National Police.Google Scholar
  40. Swedish National Police 2015. Vulnerable neighbourhoods – social risk, collective ability and unwanted incidents [Utsatta områden – sociala risker, kollektiv förmåga och oönskade händelser]. Nationella Operativa Avdelningen (NOA), Swedish National Police.Google Scholar
  41. The Government Offices of Sweden. 2016. Ygeman diskuterar illegala vapen på Balkan. Press release, February 16, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
  42. Townsley, M., R. Homel, and J. Chaseling. 2003. Infectious burglaries. A test of the near repeat hypothesis. British Journal of Criminology 43 (3): 615–633.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Townsley, M., S.D. Johnson, and J.H. Ratcliffe. 2008. Space time dynamics of insurgent activity in Iraq. Security Journal 21 (3): 139–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 2013. Global study on homicide 2013: trends, contexts, data. Vienna: United Nations.Google Scholar
  45. van Wilsem, J. 2004. Criminal victimization in cross-national perspective an analysis of rates of theft, violence and vandalism across 27 countries. European Journal of Criminology 1 (1): 89–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Weisel, D., and J. Stedman. 1998. Addressing community gang problems: A model for problem-solving. In Problem-oriented policing: Crime-specific problems, critical issues, and making POP work. Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum.Google Scholar
  47. Wells, W., L. Wu, and X. Ye. 2011. Patterns of near-repeat gun assaults in Houston. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 0022427810397946.Google Scholar
  48. Wells, W., L. Wu, and X. Ye. 2012. Patterns of near-repeat gun assaults in Houston. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 49 (2): 186–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Wu, L., X. Xu, X. Ye, and X. Zhu. 2015. Repeat and near-repeat burglaries and offender involvement in a large Chinese city. Cartography and Geographic Information Science 42 (2): 178–189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Wyant, B.R., R.B. Taylor, J.H. Ratcliffe, and J. Wood. 2012. Deterrence, firearm arrests, and subsequent shootings: a micro-level spatio-temporal analysis. Justice Quarterly 29 (4): 524–545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Youstin, T.J., M.R. Nobles, J.T. Ward, and C.L. Cook. 2011. Assessing the generalizability of the near repeat phenomenon. Criminal Justice and Behavior 38 (10): 1042–1063.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Macmillan Publishers Ltd 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Joakim Sturup
    • 1
    Email author
  • Amir Rostami
    • 2
  • Manne Gerell
    • 3
  • Anders Sandholm
    • 4
  1. 1.Centre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutetand National Board of Forensic MedicineHuddingeSweden
  2. 2.Department of SociologyStockholm University and Institute for Future StudiesStockholmSweden
  3. 3.Malmö UniversityMalmöSweden
  4. 4.Swedish National PoliceStockholmSweden

Personalised recommendations