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Some Results Concerning the Estimation of Beta Distribution Parameters in PERT

  • Technical Note
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Journal of the Operational Research Society

Abstract

The traditional method of estimating mean activity-time in PERT analysis, as a weighted average of the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic activity-times, is examined. Based on properties of the beta distribution, it is shown that there are theoretical grounds for using this estimate for a specified range of modal activity times. Finally, a simple refinement of the estimate is suggested when the modal value lies outside this range.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. California State University, Fullerton

    Nicholas R. Farnum & Laverne W. Stanton

Authors
  1. Nicholas R. Farnum
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  2. Laverne W. Stanton
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Farnum, N., Stanton, L. Some Results Concerning the Estimation of Beta Distribution Parameters in PERT. J Oper Res Soc 38, 287–290 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.1987.45

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.1987.45

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