Some Theory and an Approach to Solving Sequential Multiple-Criteria Decision Problems

Abstract

This paper examines a sequential multiple-criteria decision problem. The problem arises when a decision-maker is unable to consider all possible decision alternatives simultaneously. The decision-maker evaluates only a subset of all decision alternatives, from which he chooses the most preferred solution. Obviously, this solution is not necessarily ‘globally’ best. An interesting question is: how good is the most preferred solution and what are the chances of finding a better solution by considering additional alternatives? A unified approach to solving this problem based on probability theory is presented and illustrated with numerical examples.