Abstract
Urbanisation requires careful planning and monitoring to overcome challenges like overpopulation, inadequate housing, and sanitation. Significant investments are necessary to reorganise urban areas or promote sub-tier urban centres as an approach of growth decentralisation. This study examined urban growth dynamics in Tiruchirappalli and surrounding sub-tier urban centres within a 40-km radius between 1996, 2008, and 2020. Researchers produced highly accurate land use/cover maps using unsupervised classification techniques and simulated these maps using a CA–Markov model powered by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that uses Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm to predict land use changes for the years 2035 and 2050. Statistical methods have quantified land use/cover change rate, growth deviation, and degree of freedom/diversity to explain urban built-up growth dynamics. The CA-Markov simulations show that urban built-up areas are likely to remain the major land use for potential growth, with 174.9 sq. km and 209.3 sq. km in 2035 and 2050, respectively. Urban built-up was the leading class in terms of growth between 1996–2008 and 2008–2020, and growth deviation was high in multiple zones of Tiruchirappalli and Thiruverumbur, indicating significant variation between observed and expected growth rates. The degree of disparity showed a decreasing trend between 1996–2008 and 2008–2020, with higher disparity values recorded in Tiruchirappalli and Thiruverumbur than other urban centres due to the global recession and fiscal policies. At the current rate of growth, Tiruchirappalli urban may experience a significant loss of agricultural land and environmental damage from urban pollutants in surrounding water bodies and fertile lands. The study emphasizes mutual growth of sub-tier urban centres, as suggested by the Indian planning body (NITI Aayog), is a significant intervention to address the negative impacts of urban spatial growth.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated/analyzed during the study are available from the corresponding author on request.
References
Abera W, Assen M, Satyal P (2019) Spatio-temporal land use/cover dynamics and its implication for sustainable land use in Wanka watershed northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Model Earth Syst Environ 5:571–581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0547-5
Aghsaei H, Dinan NM, Moridi A, Asadolahi Z, Delavar M, Fohrer N, Wagner PD (2020) Effects of dynamic land use/land cover change on water resources and sediment yield in the Anzali wetland catchment Gilan Iran. Sci Total Environ 712:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136449
Agricultural Schemes, Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Tamil Nadu. Source: https://www.tn.gov.in/scheme/department_wise/2
Almeida CM, De. (2005) GIS and remote sensing as tools for the simulation of urban land-use change. Int J Remote Sens Taylor Franc. 26(4):759–774. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160512331316865
Alshehhi R, Prashanth RM (2017) Hierarchical graph-based segmentation for extracting road networks from high-resolution satellite images. ISPRS J Photogram Remote Sens, 126:245–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.02.008
Annual Report 2021–22, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (NHUA), Source: https://mohua.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/files/english-annual-report-2021-22.pdf
Arindam B, Kidokoro T, Seta F (2019) Metropolitan governance and local decentralisation in India: case of Chennai and Kolkata metropolitan regions. Asia-Pacific J Reg Sci. 3:675–696. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-019-00115-w
Arsanjani J, Helbich M, Kainz W, Boloorani AD (2013) Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion. Int J Appl Earth Obser Geoinf. 21:265–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.014
Bhagat, R.B (2018) Urbanization in India: Trend Pattern and Policy Issues. IIPS Working Paper No. 17, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS). pp. 1–32. Source: https://www.iipsindia.ac.in/sites/default/files/IIPS_Working_Paper_No_17.pdf
Bhatta B, Saraswati S, Bandyopadhyay D (2010) Quantifying the degree-of-freedom, degree-of-sprawl, and degree-of-goodness of urban growth from remote sensing data. Appl Geography 30(1):96–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.08.001
Chen C, He X, Liu Z, Sun W, Dong H, Chu Y (2020) Analysis of regional economic development based on land use and land cover change information derived from Landsat imagery. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-69716-2
Dahal KR, Benner S, Lindquist E (2016) Analysing spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization in treasure valley, Idaho, USA". Appl Spat Anal Policy 11:205–226. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-016-9215-1
Dhanaraj K, Angadi DP (2020) Land use land cover mapping and monitoring urban growth using remote sensing and GIS techniques in Mangaluru, India". GeoJournal 87:1133–1159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-020-10302-4
Du S, Luo L, Cao K, Shu M (2016) Extracting building patterns with multilevel graph partition and building grouping". ISPRS J Photogram Remote Sens. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.10.001
Ekumah B, Armah FA, Afrifa EKA, Aheto DW, Odoi J, Afitiri AR (2020) Assessing land use and land cover change in coastal urban wetlands of international importance in Ghana using Intensity Analysis. Wetlands Ecol Manage 28:271–284. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-020-09712-5
Fattah Md, Abdul., Morshed, Syed Riad., and Morshed, Syed Yad. (2021) Multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain-based artificial neural network for modelling future land-specific carbon emission pattern and its influences on surface temperature". SN Applied Sciences. 3(359):1–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-021-04351-8
Fincher R, Iveson K, Leitner H, Preston V (2014) Planning in the multicultural city: celebrating diversity or reinforcing difference? Progr Plan 92:1–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2013.04.001
Geyer H, Kontuly T (1993) A theoretical foundation for the concept of differential urbanization". Int Reg Sci Rev 15(2):157–177. https://doi.org/10.1177/016001769301500202
Ghosh S (2019) A city growth and land-use/land-cover change: a case study of Bhopal India. Modell Earth Syst Environ 5:1569–1578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00605-y
Ghosh P et al (2017) Application of cellular automata and Markov-chain model in geospatial environmental modelling—a review. Remote Sens Appl: Soc Environ 5:64–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.01.005
Gisbert FJ, Goerlich M, Isidro C, Gielen E (2017) Clustering cities through urban metrics analysis. J Urban Design 22(5):689–708. https://doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2017.1305882
Guan DJ, Li HF, Inohae T, Su W, Nagai T, Hokao K (2011) Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model". Appl Geograph 222:3761–3772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.09.009
Haase D et al (2014) A quantitative review of urban ecosystem service assessments: concepts, models, and implementation". Ambio 43:413–433. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0504-0
Higano Y, Kourtit K, Nijkamp P (2013) Cities in transition: editorial introduction". J Urban Manag. 2(1):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2226-5856(18)30061-X
Hiremath RB, Balachandra P, Kumar B, Bansode SS, Murali J (2013) Indicator-based urban sustainability—a review". Energy Sustain Dev 17:555–563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2013.08.004
Huang Y, Yang B, Wang M, Liu B, Yang X (2019) Analysis of the future land cover change in Beijing using CA–Markov chain model". Environmental Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8785-z
Hussein K, Alkaabi K, Ghebreyesus D, Liaqat MU, Sharif HO (2020) Land use/land cover change along the Eastern Coast of the UAE and its impact on flooding risk". Geomats, Nat Hazards Risk 11(1):112–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2019.1707718
Juhi PH, Milap P (2019) Urban dynamics assessment of Ghaziabad as a suburb of National Capital Region India. Geo J 84:623–639. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-018-9877-0
King LO (2016) Functional sustainability indicators". Ecolog Indic. 66:121–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.01.027
Kontuly T, Geyer H (2002) Lessons learned from testing the differential urbanization model. Tijdschr Econ Soc Geogr 94(1):124–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9663.00242
Kumar S, Ghosh S, Singh S (2022) Polycentric urban growth and identification of urban hot spots in Faridabad, the million-plus metropolitan city of Haryana India: a zonal assessment using spatial metrics and GIS". Environ Dev Sustain 24:8246–8286. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01782-6
Lee S, Crawford MM (2004) Hierarchical clustering approach for unsupervised image classification of hyperspectral data. IGARSS 2004 IEEE international geoscience and remote sensing symposium. IEEE
Li J, Li K, Qiu R (2022) The suburbanization and revitalization of industrial land in Shanghai, China. Sustainability 14:1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127062
Liu M, Chi X, Zhang C, An S, Yu W, Chen J (2007) The spatiotemporal dynamics of rapid urban growth in the Nanjing metropolitan region of China. Landsc Ecol 22(6):925–937. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-007-9079-5
Malligai M (2018) Mapping Urban Sprawl and measuring urban density using Shannon entropy: a case study of Salem city and its environ. Int J Sci Res 7(4):1436–1440. https://doi.org/10.21275/ART20181976
Mao D et al (2020) National wetland mapping in China: a new product resulting from object-based and hierarchical classification of Landsat 8 OLI images. ISPRS J Photogr Remote Sens 164:11–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.03.020
McCormick K, Anderberg S, Coenen L, Neij L (2013) Advancing sustainable urban transformation. J Clean Prod 50:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.01.003
Meshesha TW, Tripathi SK, Khare D (2016) Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia. Modell Earth Syst Environ 2:168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0233-4
Moghadam HS, Helbich M (2013) Spatiotemporal urbanization processes in the megacity of Mumbai, India: a Markov chains-cellular automata urban growth model. Appl Geogr 40:140–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.01.009
MohanRajan SN, Agilandeeswari L, Manoharan P (2020) Survey on land use/land cover (LU/LC) change analysis in remote sensing and GIS environment: techniques and challenges. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:29900–29926. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09091-7
Moroke T, Schoeman C, Schoeman I (2019) Developing a neighbourhood sustainability assessment model: an approach to sustainable urban development. Sustain Cities Soc. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101433
Morya CP, Ram M (2020) Dynamics of suburbanization and influence of National Capital Territory of Delhi on towns. GeoJ 85:1725–1743. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-10052-y
Munier N (2011) Methodology to select a set of urban sustainability indicators to measure the state of the city, and performance assessment. Ecol Ind 11:1020–1026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.01.006
Nguyen TT, Hoffmann E, Buerkert A (2022) Spatial patterns of urbanising landscapes in the North Indian Punjab show features predicted by fractal theory. Sci Rep 12:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05906-4
Ourednicek M (2007) Differential suburban development in the Prague urban region. Geografiska Annaler Ser B Human Geogr 89(2):111–126. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0467.2007.00243.x
Palmate SS, Pandey A, Mishra SK (2017) Modelling spatiotemporal land dynamics for a trans-boundary river basin using integrated Cellular automata and markov chain approach. App Geograph 82:11–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.03.001
Panda S, Chakraborty M, Misra SK (2016) Assessment of social sustainable development in urban India by a composite index. Int J Sustain Built Environ 5:435–450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2016.08.001
Parekh D, et al. (2008). “Report of the High-Level Task Force on Affordable Housing for All”, Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, Government of India. Source: https://nhb.org.in/R&D/Committee_Report.pdf
Pařil V, Ondrůšková B, Krajíčková A, Petra Z (2022) The cost of suburbanization: spending on environmental protection. Eur Plan Stud 30(10):002–2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2021.2002270
Prakash, K., and Jegankumar, R., (2020). “Modelling Urban Dynamics of Tamil Nadu, A Case Study along the Coimbatore - Salem Corridor”, Application of Geospatial Technologies in Management of Natural Resources and Disaster, UGC National Conference, Feb 17–18, 2020. The Gandhigram Rural Institute, Dindigul, Tamil Nadu.
Pramit G et al (2017) Application of cellular automata and Markov-chain model in geospatial environmental modelling—a review. Remote Sens Appl: Soc Environ 5:64–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.01.005
Pupphachai U, Zuidema C (2016) Sustainability indicators: a tool to generate learning and adaptation in sustainable urban development. Ecolog Indic. 72:784–793. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.09.016
Rahaman AS, Aruchamy S, Balasubramani K, Jegankumar R (2017) Land use/land cover changes in semi-arid mountain landscape in southern India: a geoinformatics based markov chain approach. Int Arch Photogr Remote Sens Spatial Inform Sci. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-1-W1-231-2017
Rahman Md (2018) Classification of cities in Bangladesh based on remote sensing derived spatial characteristics. J Urban Manag. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2018.12.001
RBI (Reserve Bank of India), (2018). “Affordable Housing in India”. Source: https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/AFFORDABLE609D506CB8C247DAB526C40DAF461881.PDF
Rimal B, Zhang L, Keshtkar H, Wang N, Lin Y (2017) Monitoring and modeling of spatiotemporal urban expansion and land-use/land-cover change using integrated markov chain cellular automata model. Int J Geo-Inform 6:1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6090288
Roy B, Kasemi N (2021) Monitoring urban growth dynamics using remote sensing and GIS techniques of Raiganj Urban Agglomeration, India. Egyptian J Remote Sens Space Sci 24:221–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2021.02.001
Roy B, Kasemi N (2022) Quantification of urban expansion in Siliguri urban agglomeration (UA): a model-based approach. Geo J 87(4):869–884. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10628-1
Sachs S et al (2022) From crisis to sustainable development: the SDGs as roadmap to 2030 and beyond. Sustainable development report 2022. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Sakurai K, Kobayashi S, Tetsuya T (2013) An important perspective on urban management: the application of material flow balance model to the past recycling society in Japan. J Urban Manag 2(1):49–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2226-5856(18)30064-5
Salem M, Tsurusaki N, Divigalpitiya P (2020) Land use/land cover change detection and urban sprawl in the peri-urban area of greater Cairo since the Egyptian revolution of 2011. J Land Use Sci Taylor Franc 15(5):592–606. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2020.1765425
Shaw A (1999) Emerging patterns of urban growth in India. Econ Polit Weekly. 34:969–978
Tanguay GA, Rajaonson J, Lefebvre JF, Lanoie P (2009) Measuring the sustainability of cities: an analysis of the use of local indicators. Ecol Indic 10:407–418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2009.07.013
Thonfeld F, Steinbach S, Muro J, Kirimi F (2020) Long-term land use/land cover change assessment of the kilombero catchment in tanzania using random forest classification and robust change vector analysis. Remote Sens 12(7):1–25. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12071057
Tripathi S (2021) How does urbanization affect the human development index? A cross-country analysis. Asia-Pacific J Reg Sci. 5:1053–1080. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-021-00211-w
Tripathya P, K, Amit, (2019) Monitoring and modelling spatio-temporal urban growth of Delhi using cellular automata and geoinformatics. Cities 90:52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.01.021
Vasárus GL, Lennert J (2022) Suburbanization within city limits in Hungary—a challenge for environmental and social sustainability. Sustainability 14:1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148855
Xiao J et al (2006) Evaluating urban expansion and land use change in Shijiazhuang, China, by using GIS and remote sensing". Landscape Urban Plan. 75:69–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.12.005
Yi P, Qiankun D, Li W (2019) Evaluation of city sustainability using the deviation maximization method. Sustain Cit Soc. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101529
Zeng C, Zhang A, Xu S (2016) Urbanization and administrative restructuring: a case study on the Wuhan urban agglomeration. Habitat Int 55:46–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.02.006
Zhang Z, Su S, Xiao R, Jiang D, Wu J (2013) Identifying determinants of urban growth from a multi-scale perspective: a case study of the urban agglomeration around Hangzhou Bay. Appl Geo. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.09.013
Zhao Y, Ke Z, Yingchun Fu, Zhang H (2012) Examining land-use/land-cover change in the Lake Dianchi watershed of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau of Southwest China with remote sensing and gis techniques: 1974–2008. Int J Environ Res Public Health 9:3843–3865. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph9113843
Acknowledgements
The study has been carried out with the support from the University Grants Commission Special Assistance Programme (UGC-SAP) and the Indian Council for Social Science Research (ICSSR) (Award No: RFD/2019-20/GEN/GEOG/287). We also thank the Department of Geography, Bharathidasan University and United States Geological Survey (USGS) online portal for providing Toposheets and Landsat satellite imageries for the study.
Funding
No funding was received for conducting this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Ethical approval
The study has not required any ethical approvals.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
About this article
Cite this article
Prakash, K., Jegankumar, R. & Libina, R.S. Modelling differential urban growth dynamics for growth decentralisation: a study on Tiruchirappalli metropolitan and sub-tier towns, India. Asia-Pac J Reg Sci 7, 1191–1221 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-023-00301-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-023-00301-x