Abstract
Siliguri, a metropolitan city of West Bengal, has been experiencing extensive and rapid urban outgrowth from the last 2 decades. This tremendous urban expansion leads to the loss of natural landscape, agriculture lands, forest cover, and creating problems to run urban utility services effectively in expanded areas. Spatiotemporal assessment and modeling of urban expansion are very crucial as well as helpful for better management of sprawl areas. Therefore, in the present investigation, we have studied the responsible driving factors for urban expansion of the Siliguri metropolitan area form the period 1991–2017 with the help of binary logistic regression using random and stratified sampling. Sixteen independent variables have been included in this model, and these are elevation, slope, distance to the forest distance to the river, distance to agriculture, land value, proximity of road, distance to rail, proximity of old city, proximity of education, proximity of medical, proximity of utility services, built-up density, distance to the canal, population density. This research shows that over the past 2 decades, the built-up area has been expanded rapidly in the town. Results obtained from the model explain that elevation, the proximity of the major road, land value, the proximity of education center, medical center are the most important factors of urban expansion from 1991 to 2017. Interpolated probability map obtained from the model shows that most urban expansions will take place nearby the old urban areas and along the major roads in the southwest direction. Edge expansion is a dominant process rather than infill development in the area. The area under curve of receiver operating characteristics is 0.88 that specifies the predicted probability surface of the urban growth is correct and the model is valid.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aarthi AD, Gnanappazham L (2018) Urban growth prediction using neural network coupled agents-based cellular automata model for Sriperumbudur Taluk, Tamil Nadu, India. Egypt J Remote Sens Space Sci 21(3):353–362
Aarthi AD, Gnanappazham L (2019) Comparison of urban growth modeling using deep belief and neural network based cellular automata model—a case study of Chennai metropolitan area, Tamil Nadu, India. J Geogr Inf Syst 11(01):1
Augustin NH, Cummins RP, French DD (2001) Exploring spatial vegetation dynamics using logistic regression and a multinomial logit model. J Appl Ecol 38(5):991–1006
Basak A (2018) Geographical study on urbanization and associated problems in North Bengal. University
Berberoğlu S, Akın A, Clarke KC (2016) Cellular automata modeling approaches to forecast urban growth for Adana, Turkey: a comparative approach. Landsc Urban Plan 153:11–27
Bhattacharyya DB, Mitra S (2013) Making Siliguri a walkable city. Procedia Soc Behav Sci 96:2737–2744
Cao Y, Zhang X, Fu Y, Lu Z, Shen X (2020) Urban spatial growth modeling using logistic regression and cellular automata: a case study of Hangzhou. Ecol Ind 113:106200
Capps KA, Bentsen CN, Ramírez A (2016) Poverty, urbanization, and environmental degradation: urban streams in the developing world. Freshw Sci 35(1):429–435
Chen Y, Li X, Liu X, Huang H, Ma S (2019) Simulating urban growth boundaries using a patch-based cellular automaton with economic and ecological constraints. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 33(1):55–80
Cheng J, Masser I (2003) Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China. Landsc Urban Plan 62(4):199–217
Debnath M, Ray S (2017) Migration and rapid urban growth: a study on Siliguri city. Asian J Res Bus Econ Manag 7(6):117–126
Guangjin T, Xinliang X, Xiaojuan L, Lingqiang K (2016) The comparison and modeling of the driving factors of urban expansion for thirty-five big cities in the three regions in China. Adv Meteorol 2016:1–9
Hamdy O, Zhao S, Osman T, Salheen MA, Eid YY (2016) Applying a hybrid model of markov chain and logistic regression to identify future urban sprawl in Abouelreesh, Aswan: a case study. Geosciences (Switzerland). https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences6040043
Hamdy O, Zhao S, Salheen MA, Eid YY (2017) Analyses the driving forces for urban growth by using IDRISI® Selva models Abouelreesh–Aswan as a case study. Int J Eng Technol 9(3):226
Hettiarachchi M, Morrison TH, Wickramsinghe D, Mapa R, De Alwis A, McAlpine CA (2014) The eco-social transformation of urban wetlands: a case study of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Landsc Urban Plan 132:55–68
Holcombe EA, Beesley ME, Vardanega PJ, Sorbie R (2016) Urbanisation and landslides: hazard drivers and better practices. In: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Civil Engineering, vol 169, no 3. Thomas Telford Ltd., London, pp 137–144
Hosseinali F, Alesheikh AA, Nourian F (2013) Agent-based modeling of urban land-use development, case study: simulating future scenarios of Qazvin city. Cities 31:105–113
Hou H, Wang R, Murayama Y (2019) Scenario-based modelling for urban sustainability focusing on changes in cropland under rapid urbanization: a case study of Hangzhou from 1990 to 2035. Sci Total Environ 661:422–431
Hu Z, Lo CP (2007) Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Comput Environ Urban Syst 31(6):667–688
Kasraian D, Maat K, van Wee B (2019) The impact of urban proximity, transport accessibility and policy on urban growth: a longitudinal analysis over five decades. Environ Plan B Urban Anal City Sci 46(6):1000–1017
Kechebour BE (2015) Relation between stability of slope and the urban density: case study. Procedia Eng 114:824–831
Khajeh Borj Sefidi A, Ghalehnoee M (2016) Analysis of urban growth pattern using logistic regression modeling, spatial autocorrelation and fractal analysis case study: Ahvaz city, Iran. Univ Sci Technol 26(2):183–194
Koutsias N, Karteris M (1998) Logistic regression modelling of multitemporal Thematic Mapper data for burned area mapping. Int J Remote Sens 19(18):3499–3514
Kucsicsa G, Grigorescu I (2018) Urban growth in the Bucharest metropolitan area: spatial and temporal assessment using logistic regression. J Urban Plan Dev 144(1):05017013
Liu Y, Feng Y (2012) A logistic based cellular automata model for continuous urban growth simulation: a case study of the Gold Coast City, Australia. In: Agent-based models of geographical systems. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 643–662
Liu Y, Dai L, Xiong H (2015) Simulation of urban expansion patterns by integrating auto-logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models. J Environ Plan Manag 58(6):1113–1136
Liu X, Hu G, Chen Y, Li X, Xu X, Li S, Pei F, Wang S (2018) High-resolution multi-temporal mapping of global urban land using Landsat images based on the Google Earth Engine Platform. Remote Sens Environ 209:227–239
Luo T, Tan R, Kong X, Zhou J (2019) Analysis of the driving forces of urban expansion based on a modified logistic regression model: a case study of Wuhan city, Central China. Sustainability 11(8):2207
Mahmoud H, Divigalpitiya P (2019) Spatiotemporal variation analysis of urban land expansion in the establishment of new communities in Upper Egypt: a case study of New Asyut city. Egypt J Remote Sens Space Sci 22(1):59–66
Maithani S (2010) Cellular automata based model of urban spatial growth. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 38(4):604–610
Mustafa A, Rienow A, Saadi I, Cools M, Teller J (2018) Comparing support vector machines with logistic regression for calibrating cellular automata land use change models. Eur J Remote Sens 51(1):391–401
Nichol J, Wong MS (2005) Modeling urban environmental quality in a tropical city. Landsc Urban Plan 73(1):49–58
Nong Y, Du Q (2011) Urban growth pattern modeling using logistic regression. Geo-spatial Inf Sci 14(1):62–67
Oueslati W, Alvanides S, Garrod G (2015) Determinants of urban sprawl in European cities. Urban Stud 52(9):1594–1614
Pandey B, Joshi PK (2015) Numerical modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Chandigarh and surrounding region (India) using multi-agent systems. Model Earth Syst Environ 1(3):14
Pravitasari AE, Rustiadi E, Mulya SP, Setiawan Y, Fuadina LN, Murtadho A (2018) Identifying the driving forces of urban expansion and its environmental impact in Jakarta–Bandung mega urban region. In: IOP conference series: earth and environmental science, vol 149, no. 1. IOP Publishing, p 012044
Puertas OL, Henríquez C, Meza FJ (2014) Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago metropolitan area, 2010–2045. Land Use Policy 38:415–425
Rahim IA, Tahir SH, Musta B, Roslee R (2018) Urbanization vs. environmental quality: some observation in Telipok, Sabah, Malaysia. Geol Behav (GBR) 2(1):12–17
Rimal B, Zhang L, Keshtkar H, Wang N, Lin Y (2017) Monitoring and modeling of spatiotemporal urban expansion and land-use/land-cover change using integrated Markov chain cellular automata model. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inf 6(9):288
Salem M, Tsurusaki N, Divigalpitiya P (2019) Analyzing the driving factors causing urban expansion in the peri-urban areas using logistic regression: a case study of the Greater Cairo region. Infrastructures 4(1):4
Sarkar A, Chouhan P (2019) Dynamic simulation of urban expansion based on cellular automata and Markov chain model: a case study in Siliguri metropolitan area, West Bengal. Model Earth Syst Environ 5(4):1723–1732
Siddiqui A, Siddiqui A, Maithani S, Jha AK, Kumar P, Srivastav SK (2018) Urban growth dynamics of an Indian metropolitan using CA Markov and logistic regression. Egypt J Remote Sens Space Sci 21(3):229–236
Subasinghe S, Estoque RC, Murayama Y (2016) Spatiotemporal analysis of urban growth using GIS and remote sensing: a case study of the Colombo metropolitan area, Sri Lanka. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inf 5(11):197
Weber C, Puissant A (2003) Urbanization pressure and modeling of urban growth: example of the Tunis metropolitan area. Remote Sens Environ 86(3):341–352
Weng YC (2007) Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to urbanization. Landsc Urban Plan 81(4):341–353
Xu J, Zhang Z, Wang C, Zhao X, Liu B, Yi L (2009) Urban expansion monitoring and driving forces analysis: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China. In: 2009 joint urban remote sensing event, pp 1–6
Yao Q, Liu C, Ferrier JA, Liu Z, Sun J (2015) Urban-rural inequality regarding drug prescriptions in primary care facilities–a pre-post comparison of the National Essential Medicines Scheme of China. Int J Equity Health 14(1):58
Acknowledgements
We would like to extend our gratitude to Siliguri Municipal Corporation, and Siliguri Jalpaiguri development authority for their support in this research. We thank our co-researchers Bikash Barman, Salim Mandal, Joy Saha who provided insight and expertise that greatly assisted the research work.
Funding
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
AS developed the theoretical background, designed the model and the computational framework, and analyzed the data. Both AS and PC authors contributed to the final version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sarkar, A., Chouhan, P. Modeling spatial determinants of urban expansion of Siliguri a metropolitan city of India using logistic regression. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 6, 2317–2331 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00815-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00815-9