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Comparison of the modeled potential yield versus the actual yield of maize in Northeast China and the implications for national food security

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Abstract

A precise spatial knowledge of potential yield and actual yield is crucial to assessing an increase in grain yield and is relevant to national food security. In this paper, the potential maize yields at the county level in 2013 in Northeast China were estimated using a Miami model in combination with an integrated fertility index and the effect of chemical fertilizers on yield increase. Then, the spatial characteristics of the climate, farmland and grain production potential were presented, and the potential yield increase and food security implications were analyzed. The estimated production potentials of the climate, farmland and grain in 2013 were approximately 4.65 × 103–13.06 × 103 kg/ha, 2.77 × 103–9.38 × 103 kg/ha, and 2.97 × 103–12.1 × 103 kg/ha, respectively, whereas the actual maize yield in 2013 was 1.50 × 103–8.60 × 103 kg/ha, accounting for 41.86–95.84 % of the grain production potential. The total average potential maize increase in Northeast China was 3.32 × 103 kg/ha, measured from the difference between the climate production potential and the actual yield. Furthermore, the main regions with lower surplus production but a higher potential for increase were located in the eastern Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. In addition, the surplus production, which was 136.56 million tons, could feed 341.4 million people in other areas of China. In conclusion, we suggest that improving access to agronomic practices (such as fertilizer and high-yielding seed) and developing agricultural policies and strategies could increase the maize yield and further narrow the yield gap.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the Special Research Program for Agriculture of China (201303126), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41371002), and the Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science (Grant No. OFSLRSS201622).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Engineering Laboratory for Efficient Utilization of Soil and Fertilizer Resources, College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, NO.120 Dongling Road, Shenhe District, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110866, China

    Hongdan Li, Bing Wang, Tingting An, Shuangyi Li & Jingkuan Wang

  2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing, 100101, China

    Wenjiao Shi

  3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Wenjiao Shi

  4. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Wenjiao Shi

  5. Shenyang Urban Planning Design & Research Institute, Shenyang, 110866, China

    Shuang Li

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  1. Hongdan Li
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  2. Wenjiao Shi
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Li, H., Shi, W., Wang, B. et al. Comparison of the modeled potential yield versus the actual yield of maize in Northeast China and the implications for national food security. Food Sec. 9, 99–114 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-016-0632-4

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