Abstract
Using monthly market returns over a period of 104 years, we investigate possible relationships between stock market performance and various occurrences in American elections. Unlike most prior studies, we find little relationship between the two. In the relatively few cases where we do find statistically significant relationships, the degree of explanatory power is quite small. Specifically, market returns do not appear to vary based on partisan control of the government, a result that is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of macroeconomic control variables. Further, the often-discussed “second-half” effect, which predicts higher returns during the second half of a given presidential term, turns out to be both weaker and less straightforward than is commonly believed. Overall, neither election results nor the election cycle appears to offer much help in predicting stock market returns.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allvine FC, O’Neill DE (1980) Stock market returns and the presidential election cycle. Financ Anal J 36(5):49–56 doi:10.2469/faj.v36.n5.49
Homaifar G, Randolph WL, Helms BP, Haddad M (1988) American presidential elections and returns of defence industry stocks. Appl Econ 20(7):985–993 doi:10.1080/00036848800000021
Huang RD (1985) Common stock returns and presidential elections. Financ Anal J 41(2):58–61 doi:10.2469/faj.v41.n2.58
Hudson R, Keasey K, Dempsey M (1998) Share prices under tory and labour governments in the UK since 1945. Appl Financ Econ 8(4):389–400 doi:10.1080/096031098332925
Johnson RR, Chittenden W, Jensen G (1999) Presidential politics, stocks, bonds, bills and inflation. J Portfol Manage 26(1):27–31
Johnston LD, Williamson SH (2005). The annual real and nominal GDP for the United States, 1790–present. Economic History Services, URL: http://www.eh.net/hmit/gdp/ (Used with permission)
Niederhoffer V, Gibbs S, Bullock J (1970) Presidential elections and the stock market. Financ Anal J 26:111–113 doi:10.2469/faj.v26.n1.111
Riley WB, Luksetich WA (1980) The market prefers republicans: myth or reality. J Financ Quant Anal 15(3):541–560 doi:10.2307/2330399
Siegel JJ (2002) Stocks for the long run, 3rd edn. McGraw Hill, New York
Stovall RH (1992) Forecasting stock market performance via the presidential cycle. Financ Anal J 48:5–8
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jones, S.T., Banning, K. US elections and monthly stock market returns. J Econ Finance 33, 273–287 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-008-9059-x
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-008-9059-x