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Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China

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Abstract

Until now, we have no thorough understanding the role of absolute humidity on influenza activity, especially in tropical and subtropical areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between absolute humidity and influenza activity in seven municipalities/provinces covering different climatic zones in China. Weekly meteorological data and influenza surveillance data in seven provinces/municipalities in China were collected from January 2012 to December 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to investigate the association between absolute humidity (AH) and influenza activity in each study site. Then, seven study sites were grouped into three regions: northern, intermediate, and southernmost regions. A multivariate meta-analysis was applied to estimate the exposure-lag-response associations in three regions. The province-specific or municipality-specific curves appeared to be nonlinear, and the association between influenza activity and AH varied across regions. In Beijing and Tianjin, located in northern China, the cumulative relative risks (RRs) increased as weekly average AHmean fell below 3.41 g/m3 and 6.62 g/m3. In Guangdong and Hainan, located in southernmost China, the risk of influenza activity increased with rising average AHmean with 16.74 g/m3 and 20.18 g/m3 as the break points. In Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Chongqing, the relationship between weekly average AHmean and influenza could be described as U-shaped curves, with the lowest RRs when weekly average AHmean was 11.95 g/m3, 11.94 g/m3, and 15.96 g/m3, respectively. Meta-analysis results showed the cumulative RRs significantly increased as weekly average AHmean fell below 3.86 g/m3 in the northern region, whereas significantly increased as weekly average AHmean rose above 18.46 g/m3 and 15.22 g/m3 in intermediate and southernmost regions, respectively. Both low and high AH might increase influenza risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions.

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Availability of data and materials

The dataset analyzed is available from the corresponding authors for reasonable requests.

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate the China Meteorological Administration and Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for providing meteorological data and influenza surveillance data, and would like to thank all study participants, discussion facilitators, and consultants who contributed to this study.

Funding

Dr. Li Qi was supported by the High-level Medical Reserved Personnel Training Project of Chongqing, Chongqing Health Commission Program (grant number 2019GDRC014), Chongqing Science and Technology Bureau Program (grant number CSTC2021 jscx-gksb-N0005) and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant number 2019M660754). Dr. Jun Yang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82003552), and the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (No. 2020A1515011161). Dr. Qiyong Liu was supported by the Project commissioned by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China (No. 202046), the China Prosperity Strategic Programme Fund (SPF) 2015–16 (Project Code: 15LCI1), and the UK-China Cooperation on Climate Change Risk Assessment (PF3051_CH-WS3HBUE_YR1).

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Author notes

  1. Li Qi, Tian Liu and Yuan Gao contributed equally

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China

    Li Qi, Qin Li, Wenge Tang, Kun Su & Yu Xiong

  2. State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China

    Li Qi & Qiyong Liu

  3. Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei, 434000, China

    Tian Liu

  4. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

    Yuan Gao

  5. School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China

    Dechao Tian

  6. School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China

    Jun Yang

  7. School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, China

    Luzhao Feng

Authors
  1. Li Qi
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  2. Tian Liu
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Contributions

Writing—original draft, methodology, formal analysis, funding acquisition: Li Qi. Writing—original draft, methodology, formal analysis: Tian Liu and Yuan Gao. Resources, conceptualization, supervision, project administration: Qiyong Liu. Resources, conceptualization, supervision: Luzhao Feng. Methodology, software, writing—review and editing, supervision: Jun Yang. Investigation, data curation: Qin Li, Wenge Tang, Kun Su, Yu Xiong, Dechao Tian.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Jun Yang, Luzhao Feng or Qiyong Liu.

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Qi, L., Liu, T., Gao, Y. et al. Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 49373–49384 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19279-8

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