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Evolution characteristics of the rainstorm disaster chains in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

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Abstract

Enhancing the resistance of urban agglomeration against rainstorm-induced disasters has become a more urgent mission for the construction of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). But, few studies have focused on the rainstorm disaster chains at the scale of urban agglomeration. In view of this, in this study, we investigate the classification, mechanism, probability, variation and risk of rainstorm disaster chains in the GBA by using the meteorological observation, physical geography, land-use, socioeconomic and disaster loss data during 1990–2018. The results show that the rainstorms can lead to many disaster chains in the GBA, such as flash flood, riverine flood, debris flow/landslide, urban waterlogging and agricultural waterlogging. Among them, the urban waterlogging disaster chain has the highest probability to occur. Furthermore, these disaster chains are influenced and exacerbated by each other, leading to cascading effects. Since the twenty-first century, the frequency of urban waterlogging has increased and becomes the most prominent rainstorm-induced disaster, while flash flood, riverine flood and debris flow/landslide decreased. The rainstorm disaster loss index in the GBA shows a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) during 1990–2018. By jointly considering the rainstorm hazard, the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies and the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing and Huizhou rank the top three in the frequency of rainstorm disaster chains, and Zhaoqing ranks the first in disaster loss index. In addition, the areas with high rainstorm disaster risk level increase with the augmentation of return period. Guangzhou, Zhaoqing and Shenzhen are at high-risk level for the rainstorm disasters with 10-year and 20-year return periods. We hope that this study can provide a scientific reference for the rainstorm disaster risk management in the GBA.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available on websites (www.resdc.cn and www.data.cma.cn).

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFC1510400). We thank professor Clague, Editor-in-Chief, and four anonymous reviewers who all made very valuable suggestions for improvement of this manuscript. We thank Nanjing Hurricane Translation for reviewing the English language quality of this paper.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC1510400).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yujie Wang & Ge Gao

  2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yujie Wang

  3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Ge Gao, Jianqing Zhai, Qiufeng Liu & Lianchun Song

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  1. Yujie Wang
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by YW, GG, JZ, QL and LS. The first draft of the manuscript was written by YW, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ge Gao.

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Wang, Y., Gao, G., Zhai, J. et al. Evolution characteristics of the rainstorm disaster chains in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China. Nat Hazards 119, 2011–2032 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06108-5

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