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Evidence of surface rupture associated with historical earthquakes on the Gülbahçe Fault Zone (İzmir, Türkiye) and its application for determination of the surface fault-rupture hazard zone

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Abstract

In order to decipher the late Pleistocene-Holocene seismotectonic behavior of the Gülbahçe Fault Zone (GBFZ), trench-based palaeoseismological analyses were performed for the first time using optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon (14C) dating. The paleoseismic data from this study shows that (i) GBFZ has been responsible for four surface rupturing earthquakes since the late Pleistocene-Holocene, which occurred at 34.6 ± 8.6 ka (E1), 14.4 ± 4.4 ka (E2), 4.3 ± 2.0 ka (E3), and 0.5 ± 0.4 ka (E4), (ii) the recurrence interval of destructive earthquakes on GBFZ were found between 1.4 kyr and 6.2 kyr for the Holocene which signifies irregular recurrence interval, (iii) the elapsed time since the most recent surface rupturing earthquake on the GBFZ is 633 year, (iv) the predicted dextral slip rate ranges from 1.37 mm/yr to 4.27 mm/yr for the western splay of the GBFZ. These results show that the GBFZ has completed approximately half of the destructive earthquakes that ruptured the ground surface corresponding to the narrowest time and should be evaluated within the scope of its potential to produce a destructive earthquake in the near future. GIS-based modeling of the surface rupture zone on the GBFZ ranging in width from 40 to 50 m was defined to reduce the risks that may occur in the future on the fault zone.

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(Modified from Göktaş and Cakmakoglu, 2018). Areas where fault traces are observed as follows; D1: Offset of the stream developing on alluvial fan deposits by the fault; D2: Observation point where fault traces are observed between volcano-sedimentary units and Holocene aged front fault deposits; D3: Observation point on the center splay of the GBFZ; D4: Fault slopes of the eastern splay of the GBFZ traced between the carbonates of the Karaburun platform and the Holocene aged alluvium; D5: A view of the eastern splay of the GBFZ from NW; D6: Field view of the fault slope on the eastern splay of the GBFZ

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Acknowledgements

This study is part of a PhD thesis undertaken by the first author, is supervised by the second author at the Institute of Natural and Applied Sciences, Dokuz Eylül University, Türkiye. The authors would like to thank Pınar Gırca from the University of Southern Queensland for English editing. The authors would also thank Alper Baba (Vice-Rector of the İzmir Institute of Technology), Yusuf Baran (The Rector of the İzmir Institute of Technology), and the students from Dokuz Eylül University Mertkan Osman Geçievi, İsmail Duran, Neslihan Kıray, Büşra Yerli and Oğuz Yasin Özsoy for their help during the field and trench studies.

Funding

This research is supported by TÜBİTAK (The Scierntific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) with project Number 11Y190.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey

    Berna Şengöçmen Geçkin, Hasan Sözbilir & Mustafa Softa

  2. Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyon, Turkey

    Çağlar Özkaymak

  3. Earthquake Research and Implementation Center of Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyon, Turkey

    Çağlar Özkaymak

  4. Department of Geology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA

    Joel Q. G. Spencer

  5. Luminescence Dating Research Laboratory, Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Ankara University, Beşevler, Ankara, Turkey

    Eren Şahiner & Niyazi Meriç

  6. Department of Mining Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey

    Ahmet Hamdi Deliormanlı

Authors
  1. Berna Şengöçmen Geçkin
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  2. Hasan Sözbilir
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  3. Çağlar Özkaymak
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  4. Mustafa Softa
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  5. Joel Q. G. Spencer
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  6. Eren Şahiner
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  7. Niyazi Meriç
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  8. Ahmet Hamdi Deliormanlı
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Berna Şengöçmen Geçkin.

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Geçkin, B.Ş., Sözbilir, H., Özkaymak, Ç. et al. Evidence of surface rupture associated with historical earthquakes on the Gülbahçe Fault Zone (İzmir, Türkiye) and its application for determination of the surface fault-rupture hazard zone. Nat Hazards 114, 2189–2218 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05467-9

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