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Spatiotemporal variation in the vegetation cover of Peshawar Basin in response to climate change

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Abstract

Climate factors like temperature, precipitation, humidity, and sunshine time exert a profound influence on vegetation. The intricate interplay between the two is crucial to understand in the face of changing climate to develop mitigation strategies. In the current exploration, we delve how climate variability (CV) has impacted the vegetation in the Peshawar Basin (PB) using remote sensing data tools. The trend of climatic variability was investigated using the modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope statistics. The changing climatic parameters were regressed on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The NDVI was further analyzed for spatiotemporal variability under land surface temperature (LST) influence. Results revealed that among the climate factors, average annual temperature and solar radiation have a significant (p < 0.05) negative impact on vegetation while precipitation and relative humidity significantly (p < 0.05) influence NDVI positively. The overall positive trend shows that vegetation improved between 2001 and 2020 with time, however some years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017) with low NDVI. NDVI varied in space considerably due to climatic extremes brought on by CV and the urbanization of agricultural land. NDVI regressed on LST showed that there was no or very little vegetation in the grids with high LST. The study concluded that the region is significantly impacted by both CV-related extreme weather events and anthropogenic activities. The vegetation is improving, but it is in danger of being destroyed by deforestation due to CV and human activities that exacerbate the risk of future calamities. To protect vegetation and avoid disasters, there is an immense need for adaptation and mitigation measures to deal with the region’s fast-changing environment. The study urges local authorities to create climate-resilient governmental policies and supports regional sustainable development and vegetation restoration.

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Acknowledgements

Meteorological data were provided by the Regional Meteorological Centre of the Pakistan Meteorological Department in Peshawar, Pakistan. This paper is a section of the corresponding author’s doctoral dissertation submitted to the repository of Higher Education Commission of Pakistan via University of Peshawar.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Botany, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, 25120, Pakistan

    Ishaq Ali Shah, Zahir Muhammad & Rehman Ullah

  2. Higher Education, Archives and Libraries Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Ishaq Ali Shah

  3. Department of Weed Science and Botany, The University of Agriculture, Peshawar, 25130, Pakistan

    Haroon Khan

  4. Department of Geography and Geomatics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, 25120, Pakistan

    Atta-ur Rahman

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  1. Ishaq Ali Shah
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Contributions

I. A. S. and H. K. conceived the study, designed the analysis, and wrote the paper; Z. M. supervised the research with proofreading and editing the paper; and R. U. and A. R. provided software and tools for analysis and helped in the preparation of figures. All authors reviewed the paper.

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Correspondence to Ishaq Ali Shah.

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Highlights

• Climatic variability trend was analyzed with Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope stats and regressed with NDVI.

• Climate variability significantly affects vegetation, causing its spatiotemporal variations.

• Temperature (LST) is the most heinous climate variable to vegetation besides solar radiation.

• Policymakers and authorities urged to take action on mitigation and funding research to lower disaster risk.

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Shah, I.A., Muhammad, Z., Khan, H. et al. Spatiotemporal variation in the vegetation cover of Peshawar Basin in response to climate change. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1474 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12094-9

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