Abstract
Population aging is one of the most important demographic features that has come into prominence in the twenty-first century. In general, longevity has increased while fertility has declined resulting in an increase in the proportion of the older people. Aging of the population affects all aspects of the society including health, social security, education, socio-cultural activities, family life and the labor market. Regarding the latter, a decline in the young population of working age lowers the labour force participation rate, leading to a rise in the proportion of retired people. While governments in both developing and developed countries primarily focus on the negative effects of this for socio- demographic development, they have often also considered how such labour shortages can be mitigated by increasing the retirement age. Regarding care of the elderly, if fertility continues decreasing then this will inevitably lead to a lack of care workers, both paid and unpaid, especially, for elderly people. The social and economic provision of care still creates gender dilemmas for societies by narrowing the range of employment opportunities for women. As caring responsibilities are in general better fulfilled by women, high demand for paid care workers will increase women’s participation in the labor market in place of their role as unpaid care workers in the household. This paper analyzes possible changes in several variables, including labour force participation, the pension system, retirement age and labour supply. It places special emphasis on a variety of demographic and policy forces that are vitally important for evaluating the impact of population aging on economic growth. It also considers the implications of these developments for closing the gender gap in pension provision. It ends by offering some policy options aimed at forming the active policies that are essential for coping with the world’s rapidly increasing number of older people.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Total Fertility Rate is fewer than 2 children per women.
See forecasts of the US Bureau of the Census and the UN Population Division (2012).
L.E. = Life expectancy. Income per capita is GDP per capita in 1996 international prices, adjusted for terms of trade. Life expectancy is life expectancy at birth (World Development Indicators, World Bank). Regional averages weighted by country population. Source: Gary S. Becker, Tomas J. Philipson, and Rodrigo R. Soares, “The Quantity of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality,” American Economic Review 95, no. 1 (2005): 277–91.
For example, Lehman found in his survey that chemists reached their highest productivity level between the ages of 26 and 30. In mathematics, physics, botany and electronics, the highest productivity level was achieved between the ages of 30 and 34.
The pension gender gap is calculated by one minus women’s average pension income divided by men’s average pension income multiplied by 100. This yields the percentage by which women’s average pension is lower than men’s.
References
Ahn, N., Garcia, J., & Herce, J. (2005). Health care expenditure and demographic uncertainty (Documento de trabajo 2005–07). Madrid: FEDEA.
Anderson, R., Mikulic, B., Vermeylen, G., Lyly-Yrjanainen, M., & Zigante, V. (2009). Second european quality of life survey overview. Dublin: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.
Banister, J., Bloom, D. E., & Rosenberg, L. (2011). China: Population aging and economic growth. International economic association sixteenth world congress. Beijing: Tsinghua University.
Barth, M. C.; McNaught, W. & Rizzi, P. (1993). Corporations and the Aging Workforce. In P. H. Mirvis (Ed.), Building the Competitive Workforce: Investing in Human Capital for Corporate Success, (pp. 156–200). New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Bedford, K. (2010). Harmonizing global care policy? care and the commission on the status of women, gender and development programme paper number 7. Geneva: UNRISD.
Bergman, B. (1974). Occupational segregation, wages and profits when employers discriminate by race and sex. Eastern Economic Journal, 1, 103–110.
Bettio, F. (2008). Occupational Segregation and gender wage disparities in developed economies: should we still worry?. In F. Bettio & A. Verashchagina (Ed..), Frontiers in the Economics of Gender. (pp. 167–192). Routledge: Siena Studies in Political Economy.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend. A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand document MR–1274. Santa Monica: RAND.
Corbo, V. (2004). Policy Challenges of Population Aging and Pension Systems in Latin America. Symposium on Global Demographic Change: Economic Implications and Policy Challenges. Jackson Hole, WY. August 26–28.
Davis, K. (1986). Ageing and the health-care system: economic and structural issues. Daedalus, 115, 227–246.
Dethier, J.J., Pestieau, P. & Ali, R. (2010). Universal Minimum Old Age Pensions: Impact on Poverty and Fiscal Cost in 18 Latin American Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5292. Retrieved November 5, from World Bank.
Dwyer, R. E. (2013). The care economy? gender, economic restructuring and Job polarization in the US labor market. American Sociological Review, 78(3), 390–416.
Eide, A., Krause, C., & Rosas, A. (2001). Economic, social and cultural rights: a textbook. The Hague: Kluwer Law International.
European Commission – DG ECFIN. (2011a). Health and long-term care expenditure projections: availability/collection of data, Note for the attention of the Ageing Working Group of the EPC, ECFIN/C2(2011)128176.
Eurostat (2011). The greying of the baby boomers: A century-long view of ageing in European populations, Eurostat: the Statistical Office of the European Union.
Folbre, N., Shaw, L. B., & Stark, A. (2005). Introduction: gender and aging. Feminist Economics, 11, 3–5.
Haji Mat Zin, R., Lee, H.-A., & Abdul-Rahman, S. (2002). Social protection in malaysia. In E. Adam, M. von Hauff, & M. John (Eds.), Social protection in southeast & east asia (pp. 119–170). Singapore: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
Hoem, B. (2000). Entry into motherhood in sweden: the influence of economic factors on the rise and fall in fertility. Demographic Research, 1986–1997, 2–4.
Howse, K. (2006). Pension reform and age of entitlement rules. Ageing Horizons, 5, 3–11.
International Labour Office (2004a), A Fair Globalization: Creating Opportunities For All, International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland.
Jimeno, J. F., Rojas, J. A., & Puente, S. (2006). Modelling the impact of ageing on social security expenditures. Documentos ocasionales No. 0601. Madrid: Banco de España.
Lehman, H. C. (1953). The ages of scheduled participants at the 1948. APA annual meeting. American Psychologist, 8, 125–126.
Lewis, J., Knijn, T., Martin, C., & Ostner, I. (2008). Patterns of development in work/family reconciliation policies for parents in France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK in the 2000s. Social Politics, 15(3), 261–286.
Lister, R., Williams, F., Antonnen, A., Bussemaker, J., Gerhard, U., Heinen, J., et al. (2007). Gendering citizenship in western europe: New challenges for citizenship research in a cross-national context. Bristol: The Policy Press.
Malthus, T.R. (1798/1982). Essay on the principle of population, as it affects the future of improvement of society with remarks on the speculation of Mr. Goodwin, M. Condorcet and other writers. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
Mohan, R. (2004). Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging: The Asian Experience. Paper presented at Symposium on Global Demographic Change: Economic Implications and Policy Challenges. Jackson Hole, Wyoming. August 26–28.
OECD (2012). Closing the pension gap: the role of private pensions, OECD: Paris.
OECD (2013). Pension Markets in Focus, OECD: Paris
Razavi, S. (2012). Rethinking care in a development context: an introduction. Development and Change, 42(4), 873–903.
Robine, J. M., & Michel, J. P. (2004). Looking forward to a general theory on population aging. The Journals of Gerontology: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 59(6), 590–597.
Sandell, S. H. (1977). Women and the economics of family migration. Review of Economics and Statistics, 59(4), 406–414.
Strosberg, M. A., Fein, I. A., & Caroll, J. D. (Eds.). (1989). Rationing of medical care for the critically ill. Washington: Brookings Institute.
Uhlenberg, P. (1992). Population ageing and social policy. Annual Review of Sociology, 18, 449–474.
United Nations (2010). World Population Prospects: the 2006 Revision. Fact Sheet on Aging. New York, NY: UN.
United Nations (2012). World Population Prospects: the 2010 Revision. New York, NY: UN.
WHO (2011). Global Health and Aging, NY: US National Institute of Aging.
Williams, F. (2010). Claiming and Framing in the Making of Care Policies: the recognition and redistribution of care, Gender and Development Programme Paper Number 13, UNRISD.
World Economic Forum (2010) The Global Gender Gap Report 2010. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
World Economic Forum (2011). Global Population Aging: Peril or Promise, Geneva: World Economic Forum.
World Bank (2013). World Development Report, 2013: Gender Equality and Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
Zoubanov, A. (2000). Population ageing and population decline: government views and policies, expert group meeting on policy responses to population ageing and population decline. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 1–15. New York: UN.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ince Yenilmez, M. Economic and Social Consequences of Population Aging the Dilemmas and Opportunities in the Twenty-First Century. Applied Research Quality Life 10, 735–752 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-014-9334-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-014-9334-2