Abstract
Deforestation is the main manifestation of anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) over the last centuries and has considerable effects on climate extremes. Here, we employed the state-of-the-art CMIP6-LUMIP future projections to analyze the responses of future temperature and precipitation extremes induced by deforestation. This study used more realistic forest change projections to better characterize real-world climate responses and used a multi-model ensemble to reduce model uncertainties. Results indicate that the deforestation regions are projected to induce a remarkably hotter and drier future at the end of the twenty-first century. However, the climate responses averaged globally to deforestation have no obvious changes due to the colder and wetter compensation responses in other regions. The maximum temperature increase in deforestation regions is prominent in intensity, frequency, and duration aspects, while the drought is mainly manifested by frequency and duration reduction of precipitation. Seasonal cycle of changes in temperature indices can be discovered in the mid-latitude deforestation region, tropical region shows year-round consistency by comparison. Moreover, thanks to the rich and reasonable experimental designs of CMIP6-LUMIP, we can compare the deforestation impacts under different climate backgrounds and find changes in climate extremes are more obvious under the low-emission scenario in general. Our work is devoted to portraying the latest and more realistic picture of LULCC impacts on climate extremes and gives early warning information to policymakers and the public.
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Data availability
All datasets used in this study are available for public download and the website links are provided below. CMIP6 model outputs are available from esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. (World Climate Research Programme, 2020). LUH2 can be downloaded from https://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml (Hurtt et al. 2020; Popp et al. 2017).
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Acknowledgements
This study was jointly supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (41925021), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (grant 2019QZKK010314) and the CAS “Light of West China” Program (xbzg-zdsys-202102). Supports of the Fudan University-Tibet University Joint Laboratory for Biodiversity and Global Change, Shanghai Scientific Frontier Base of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, and Shanghai key laboratory of ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary processes and Climate Change, Fudan University, are appreciated. The authors acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web for providing CMIP6 project datasets, LUH2 project for providing SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 land use and land cover datasets. We thank the two reviewers for their insightful suggestions.
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Zhang, M., Gao, Y., Zhang, L. et al. Impacts of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on climate extremes based on CMIP6-LUMIP experiments: part II. Future period. Clim Dyn 62, 3669–3688 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07090-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07090-1