Abstract
In this research, we initially examined the key atmospheric circulation pattern influencing the occurrence of dust storms in Northwest China during spring (February–May). We then investigated the drivers impacting atmospheric circulation over the Mongolian Plateau and southern Central Siberia (MPCMS), using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and extensive ensemble simulations, and assessed the respective roles of external forces and internal variability. Our results validated a significant inverse correlation between the reduced frequency of spring dust storms in Northwest China post-mid-1980s and heightened geopotential height anomalies over the MPCMS. By scrutinizing five comprehensive ensemble model simulations, we demonstrated that the positive tendencies in atmospheric circulation anomalies over the MPCMS are largely triggered by external forces, accounting for roughly 69.3% of the observed augmentations in the atmospheric circulation index trend from 1954 to 2022. Although the North Atlantic Oscillation is a leading mode of internal variability associated with geopotential height anomalies over the MPCMS, its contribution is comparatively minor. Our findings underline that the primary cause of the decrease in dust storm frequency in Northwest China since the mid-1980s could be ascribed to global warming-related external forces.
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Data availability
Atmospheric reanalysis datasets were sourced from NCEP/NCAR, which can be accessed online at (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.surface.html) and from ERA5, available online at (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5). The five LEs utilized in this study can be found at the Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive, available at (https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/MMLEA/).
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This research was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0608402).
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The authors wish to thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions. This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0608402).
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Qi, M., Ding, R., Zhang, M. et al. Unraveling the impact of external forcing and internal variability on dust storm frequency reduction in Northwest China. Clim Dyn 62, 1849–1860 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06999-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06999-x