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Fidelity of CMIP6 Models in Simulating June–September Rainfall Climatology, Spatial and Trend Patterns Over Complex Topography of Greater Horn of Africa

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Abstract

This study focuses on evaluating the High-Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP), Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), and Coupled Model simulations within the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6). We used fifteen Models to explore how CMIP6 reproduced the June–September (JJAS) precipitation features over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during the 1979–2014 historical simulation periods. Rainfall from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) are used to validate the model simulations. Overall, the AMIP multi-model ensemble mean (MME) is able to reproduce the observed seasonal mean, the annual cycle, the frequency distribution of cumulative rainfall, spatial and trend patterns of precipitation over GHA. Particularly, long-term mean of JJAS season precipitation is well reproduced over the western part of Sudan Republic, much of South Sudan, over some isolated parts of north-western Uganda, Ethiopian Highlands, and western Ethiopia. However, consistent with previous studies, coupled models MME shows substantial discrepancies compared to AMIP in simulating JJAS rainfall climatology by exhibiting dry bias relative to both GPCC and CRU rainfall. In contrast, the HighresMIP experiments reveal wet bias over most parts of the GHA. The annual cycles of observed rainfall are well captured in AMIP, CMIP, and HighresMIP experiments and with further improvement in MMEs mean. In addition, the spatial rainfall pattern correlation between GPCC (CRU) and model simulations is as high as 0.89 (0.94), whereas the maximum trend pattern correlation is 0.47(0.72) with GPCC (CRU) respectively. Employing a multicriteria decision-making algorithm (MCDM) based on eight performance metrics as the selection criterion, we identified four, three, and two models and their MMEs out of AMIP, CMIP, and HighresMIP experiments, respectively, having superior skills over Ethiopian Highlands. In contrast, the study shows substantial biases in a number of models from AMIP, CMIP and HighresMIP experiments over GHA relative to GPCC and CRU observations that need to be improved with either bias correction or through further tuning of the models to improve their skills.

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Data Availability

All the data for precipitation used in the present study for both CMIP6 GCMs and GPCC are freely available through the https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ and http://www.dwd.de/en/FundE/Klima/KLIS/int/GPCC/GPCC.htm, respectively.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the support of Ethiopian Space Science and Technology Institute(ESSTI), and Department of Environmental Science Mada-walabu University, Ethiopia. The first and the third authors would like to acknowledge that this work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the O.R.Tambo Africa Research Chairs Initiative as supported by the Botswana International University of Science and Technology,the Ministry of Tertiary Education, Science and Technology; the National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF); the Department of Science and Innovation of South Africa (DSI); the International Development Research Center of Canada (IDRC); and the Oliver & Adelaide Tambo Foundation (OATF). The second author was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 869730 (CONFER). In addition, we acknowledge all respective centers providing datasets: CMIP6 simulations used in our analyses are freely available from the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/), GPCC data is freely available from (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcc.html),

Funding

The work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the O.R.Tambo Africa Research Chairs Initiative as supported by the Botswana International University of Science and Technology,the Ministry of Tertiary Education, Science and Technology; the National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF); the Department of Science and Innovation of South Africa (DSI); the International Development Research Center of Canada (IDRC); and the Oliver & Adelaide Tambo Foundation (OATF).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Space and Planetary Science Research Division, Ethiopian Space Science and Technology Institute (ESSTI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Wogayehu Legese Jima & Titike Kassa Bahaga

  2. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya

    Titike Kassa Bahaga

  3. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST), Palapye, Botswana

    Wogayehu Legese Jima & Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu

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Wogayehu Legese Jima: worked on conceptualization; methodology; statistical data analysis and visualization; writing original draft; review and editing. Titike Kassa Bahaga worked on conceptualization; methodology; visualization; supervising. Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu: on conceptualization; methodology; statistical data analysis and visualization; supervising; writing, review and editing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript and involved in the review and editing.

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Jima, W.L., Bahaga, T.K. & Tsidu, G.M. Fidelity of CMIP6 Models in Simulating June–September Rainfall Climatology, Spatial and Trend Patterns Over Complex Topography of Greater Horn of Africa. Pure Appl. Geophys. 181, 577–609 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03414-8

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