Abstract
This paper introduces a model to estimate the consequences and related risk resulting from a collision between a LNG tanker and a tug during harbour entrance manoeuvres, The analysis is carried out for Zeebrugge harbour, where very dense traffic, including LNG tankers, is observed. The conditional probability that the collision seriously damages the LNG tanker during the mooring operations is estimated by means of a Bayesian Belief Network (B5N). Furthermore, the events that lead to a collision are identified as well as the prior probabilities of each event are evaluated in the course of numerical simulations, observations and a literature survey. The consequences of the collision are related to the costs of LNG tanker repair and the risk, expressed in monetary terms, is determined on the annual basis.
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Montewka, J., Ehlers, S. & Tabri, K. Modelling risk of a collision between a LNG tanker and a harbour tug. Mar. Syst. Ocean Technol. 7, 3–13 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03449259
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03449259