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A simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

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Abstract

A new simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides in unsaturated soils is presented. It includes a special computational weather code for forecasting the evolution of the synoptic weather and its changes due to interaction with the Earth’s surface (rainfall pattern), and a hydro-mechanical code to analyse rainfall effects on slope stability by computing degree of saturation and pore pressure changes due to rainwater infiltration. The linkage between these two numerical codes is ensured by an interface with the aim of bringing the data provided by the first code, which operates at basin or slope scale. The simulation chain can work in computational times that may be considered suitable for civil protection operations.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the Campania Civil Protection Agency which provided precipitation data from 2001 to 2010. The authors thank the COSMO consortium, the SMA–USAM (General Office for Air Space and Meteorology of the Italian meteorological service), for the availability of the COSMO LM model for research application and for the Provision of Guidance and Support. The work was partially supported by the UE/FP7 SAFELAND G.A. no. 226479.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Design, Edilizia e Ambiente, Seconda Università di Napoli, via Roma 29, 81031, Aversa, CE, Italy

    L. Olivares, E. Damiano & L. Picarelli

  2. Impact on soil and coast Division, Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC), Via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100, Lecce, Italy

    P. Mercogliano, P. Schiano, F. Cotroneo & M. P. Manzi

  3. Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), 81043, Capua, CE, Italy

    P. Mercogliano & P. Schiano

  4. Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Napoli “Federico II”, Napoli, Italy

    N. Netti

  5. STIIA (Sistemi Territoriali Integrati per l’Ingegneria Ambientale), Ercolano, NA, Italy

    V. Savastano

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  1. L. Olivares
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  2. E. Damiano
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  4. L. Picarelli
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Correspondence to L. Olivares.

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Olivares, L., Damiano, E., Mercogliano, P. et al. A simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. Landslides 11, 765–777 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0430-4

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