Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluation of transitional behavior of wetness/drought regimes in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Transitional behavior of wetness/dryness regimes is investigated using the standardized precipitation/runoff indices (SPI-SRI) and the Markov chain model, and wetness/drought conditions are predicted. Results indicate that (1) the wetness/drought hazards have large negative impacts during initial conditions in the Xiuhe River Basin and manifest their negative impacts during the development condition of the wetness/droughts in the Fuhe and Xiuhe River Basins; in the Ganjiang and Raohe River Basins, however, droughts have their greatest impacts during the lasting time intervals, (2) the occurrence of meteorological or hydrological droughts/floods individually is subject to very low probability, implying close relations between meteorological and hydrological conditions within the Poyang Lake Basin, and (3) an abrupt shift between hydrometeorological wetness and dryness events is identified, specifically in northwest and northeast parts of the Poyang Lake Basin, which could be due to intensifying precipitation regimes in these regions under the influence of increasing temperature. The prediction of droughts indicates that the transitional probability from the second condition to the hydrological drought is the lowest and the transitional probability from the first (or third) condition to the fourth condition is the largest. Results of this study will be of value for developing measures for mitigation of droughts in a changing environment.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Acreman MC, Fisher J, Stratford CJ, Mould DJ, Mountford JO (2007) Hydrological science and wetland restoration: some case studies from Europe. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11(1):158–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alan DZ, Justin S, Edwin PM, Bart N, Eric FW, Dennis PL (2003) Detection of intensification in global- and continental-scale hydrological cycles: temporal scale of evaluation. J Clim 16:535–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan RP, Soden BJ (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321(5895):1481–1484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. J Geophys Res 113:D05115. doi:10.1029/2006JD008091

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen OB, Christensen JH (2004) Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate. Global Planet Change 44:107–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Çinlar E (1975) Exceptional paper-Markov renewal theory: a survey. Manag Sci 21(7):727–752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eyton JR (1984) Complementary-color, Two-variable maps. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 74(3):447–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraedrich K, Muller K (1983) On single station forecasting: sunshine and rainfall Markov Chains. Beitr Phys Atmosph 56(1):108–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo H, Hu Q, Jiang T (2008) Annual and seasonal streamflow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the Poyang Lake basin, China. J Hydrol 355:106–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hess GD, Leslie LM, Guymer AE, Fraedrich K (1989) Application of a Markov technique to the operational, short-term forecasting of rainfall. Aust Met Mag 37:83–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu Q, Feng S, Guo H, Chen GY, Jiang T (2007) Interactions of the Yangtze River flow and hydrologic processes of the Poyang Lake, China. J Hydrol 347:90–100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu C-L, Zhang Q, Singh PV, Cui Y (2011) Copula-based evaluations of drought variations in Guangdong, South China. Nat Hazards 59:1533–1546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Logan KE, Brunsell NA, Jones AR, Feddema JJ (2010) Assessing spatiotemporal variability of drought in the U.S. central plains. J Arid Environ 74:247–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California. Amer Meteor Soc 179–184.

  • Shukla S, Wood AW (2008) Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys Res Lett 35(2):41–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilks DS (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Second Edition. Academic Press.

  • Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Zhang ZX (2009a) Observed changes of drought/wetness episodes in the Pearl River basin, China, using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Aridity Index. Theor Appl Climatol 98:89–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Zhang Z, Chen YD (2009b) Changes of temperature extremes for 1960–2004 in Far-West China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 23(6):721–735

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Singh VP, Li J, Chen X (2011a) Analysis of the periods of maximum consecutive wet days in China. J Geophys Res 116:D23106. doi:10.1029/20 11JD016088

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Sun P, Chen X, Jiang T (2011b) Hydrological extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: changing properties, causes and impacts. Hydrol Process 25(20):3121–3130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Sun P, Jiang T, Tu X, Chen X (2011c) Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrol Sci J 56(2):305–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Sun P, Singh VP, Chen X (2012a) Spatial-temporal precipitation changes (1956–2000) and their implications for agriculture in China. Global Planet Change 82–83:86–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Singh VP, Peng J, Chen YD (2012b) Spatial-temporal changes of precipitation structure across the Pearl River basin, China. J Hydrol 440–441:113–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, MZ Xiao, J Li, VP Singh, Z Wang (2013a) Topography-based spatial patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: changing properties and causes. J Hydrol 512:229-239

  • Zhang Q, Li J, Singh VP, Xiao M (2013b) Spatio-temporal relations between temperature and precipitation regimes: implications for temperature-induced changes in the hydrological cycle. Glob Planet Chang 111:57–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zolina O, Simmer C, Gulev SK, Kollet S (2010) Changing structure of European precipitation: longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls. Geophys Res Lett 37:L06704

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Jiangxi Normal University), Ministry of Education (Grant No. ZK2013006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41071020), Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University and by fully supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK441313).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang, Peng Sun & Xinjun Tu

  2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang, Peng Sun & Xinjun Tu

  3. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Anhui, 241000, China

    Peng Sun

  4. Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

  5. Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Jianfeng Li

Authors
  1. Qiang Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Peng Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Vijay P. Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jianfeng Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xinjun Tu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Qiang Zhang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Singh, V.P. et al. Evaluation of transitional behavior of wetness/drought regimes in the Poyang Lake Basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 126, 631–642 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1593-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1593-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation