Abstract
From 1903–1904 to 1988–1989, the two World Wars and sociological factors as rural desertification and changes in land uses mainly explained the decline of black truffle production in the Vaucluse department, which well reflects that of the whole of France. These can be correlated with the annual climatic variations as well as, from 1924–1925 to 1948–1949, the raw production rates of the managed truffle orchard of Pernes-les-Fontaines located in Vaucluse. The two methods used (correlation coefficients and Bayesian functional linear regression with Sparse Step functions) gave consistent results: the main factor explaining the annual variations of truffle production was the summer climatic water deficit of the year n. A general model including the rural exodus and the cumulated climatic water deficit of summer months both allowed to well explain the evolution of truffle production from 1903–1904 to 1988–1989 in the Vaucluse and its huge decrease. During that period, global warming had little effect. However, in the twenty-first century, all the scenarios predict increased summer water stress for the Mediterranean region, which could greatly affect black truffle production.
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Acknowledgments
We are very indebted to Jean-Baptiste Gravier who planted the Pernes-les-Fontaines truffle orchard in 1913 and to his son Albert Gravier, who harvested the truffles and kept records up to date. We thank Météo-France for providing meteorological data, the French Ministry of Agriculture for providing truffle sales data, the French National Institute for Geographic and Forestry News (IGN) for providing forestry data and the Vaucluse for providing sociological information. We are thankful to Elaine Bonnier for having corrected the English of this article. We thank the editor and two reviewers for their constructive comments, which helped us to improve the manuscript.
Funding
We are grateful to the French National Research Agency (ANR) as part of the “Investissements d’Avenir” program (ANR-11-LABX-0002-01, Lab of Excellence ARBRE), which financed this study.
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Conception of the study: FLT, JLD, and MB. Performing the research: MB, CM, JG, PM, PMG, and FLT. Contribution of new methods: MB and PMG. Analysis of data: MB, PM, PMG, and JLD. Drafting the paper: FLT.
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Figure S1
Diagnosis plots allowing to check the assumptions of variance homogeneity of variance and to check the absence of remaining trend in the residuals. (PDF 31 kb)
Figure S2
Diagnosis plots allowing to check the assumptions of normality of the error terms and to check that the temporal auto-correlation was well been taken into account by the auto-regressive model. (PDF 10 kb)
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Baragatti, M., Grollemund, PM., Montpied, P. et al. Influence of annual climatic variations, climate changes, and sociological factors on the production of the Périgord black truffle (Tuber melanosporum Vittad.) from 1903–1904 to 1988–1989 in the Vaucluse (France). Mycorrhiza 29, 113–125 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00572-018-0877-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00572-018-0877-1