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Study of Total Fertility Rate of Women in Employment, by Industrial Sector: Estimation of Japanese National and Prefectural Data Using the Own-Children Method

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Abstract

Chapter 2 estimates the total fertility rate (TFR) of employed women by industry sectors in Japan and its 47 prefectures for the 16 years 2000 - 2015 using the Own-Children Method. Among non-employed women, it is found that the TFR was maintained at a steady level. Another finding is that the tendency to marry later continued to progress during this period. By industrial sectors, the following results appear from the estimates. Industrial sectors with relatively high TFRs are agriculture, forestry and fisheries, government, construction, electricity, gas, heating and water, and medical, health care and welfare. Sectors with lower TFRs are wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and hospitality services, and transport and deliveries. The problems faced in attempts to reverse declining birthrates may become clearer after examining wage levels, work regulations, and working environments in industrial sectors with higher and lower TFRs. One effective way of countering the shortfall in the number of births may be to work toward policies that make it easier for women to have more children specifically in those sectors where female employees are numerous and TFRs are low. One of the measures against the declining birthrate may be to work by making policy to increase the number of births in the industrial sector with a large female working population and low TFR. With this in mind, TFRs across industrial sectors are of key importance for considering improvements in women’s working environments and choices, as well as from a demographic perspective.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See Ito and Yamamoto (1977), p. 16.

  2. 2.

    See Cho (2021) and The United Nations (1986).

  3. 3.

    Other studies include Zuberi and Sibanda (1999) applied the own-child law to the African census. There is also Wills （1973） for a static economic theory of lifetime marital fertility in US, Waller et al. (2014) for an analysis of fertility in the UK, Tamura et al. (2012) for a study of fertility differences in race.

  4. 4.

    Other studies of Japan's fertility rate are Atoh et al. (1986) Ogawa et al. (1986),　Ohbuchi （1982）, Takayama et al. (2000), Imai (1996), Shigeno (1996), Yamagami (1999), Abe et al. (1999), Shigeno et al. (2001), Ohkusa (2001), Kato (2001), Iwasawa (2002), Morita (2004), Abe (2005), Moriizumi (2005), Yamaguchi (2005), Yamashige et al. (2013).

  5. 5.

    Hinoe-uma is the 43rd year of a traditional 60-year calendar cycle, renowned for disasters and the birth of women destined to kill their husbands” (definition from Iwanami Japanese Dictionay (Second Edition) (1975), Eds. Nishio et al., Iwanami Shoten Publishers).

  6. 6.

    A similar study is Matsumura (2011) analyzed Parity-based population estimates based on the Own-Children Table in the National Census.

  7. 7.

    Tsutani and Higuchi (2009) showed the relationship between population decline and the economy. In addition, Wada (2015) provides a detailed explanation of population statistics.

  8. 8.

    Japan Standard Industrial Classification (Rev. 14, 2023) (EFFECTIVE on April 1, 2024) Retrieved September 22, 2023, from https://www.soumu.go.jp/english/dgpp_ss/seido/sangyo/san14-3.htm.

  9. 9.

    Ihara (2012), p. 87.

  10. 10.

    The 2010 census has the following additional condition for the definition of an employed person. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/2010/users-g/word4.htm (accessed Feb. 7, 2022).

    In addition, if a housewife who is employed part-time or at home does not do any remunerated work during the survey period (for the 2015 census survey, September 24–30), she is not to be counted in the category of “on leave from work,” but in the category “housework.”

    Source: http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/qa-6.htm#f1 (accessed Feb. 7, 2022).

  11. 11.

    The summary below is based on Sato (2007), pp. 381–383.

  12. 12.

    This formulation is based on Nakamura (2008), p. 103, line 11; p. 108, line 10.

  13. 13.

    Author removed K and instead added i and j in Eq. (1) in Nakamura (2008), p. 103.

  14. 14.

    This explanation step is based on Konishi and Saito (2012), pp. 6–7, “3. Creation of agglomeration index.”.

  15. 15.

    This census is data of Japan Standard Industrial Classification (JSIC).

    See note 5.

  16. 16.

    This is taken from Konishi and Saito (2012), p. 12, Table 5.

  17. 17.

    See Sato (2007), p. 375.

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Asahi, S. (2024). Study of Total Fertility Rate of Women in Employment, by Industrial Sector: Estimation of Japanese National and Prefectural Data Using the Own-Children Method. In: Econometric Analysis of Regional Economy. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-8707-8_2

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