Abstract
In this chapter, we extend political shock research by discussing how scholars might better use the PE model in international relations research. We first summarize the PE model, noting its origins in evolutionary biology and its applications to policy research. Then, we review explicit uses of the PE model in research on rivalries, norms, international law, and other issue areas. Our main goal is not to provide a comprehensive review of this research, but rather to articulate the model and the different stages of the policy process with which it corresponds—specifically, agenda setting, policy formulation, crystallization, and consolidation. Finally, we illustrate the expanded PE model by applying it to the development of certain norms in the Latin America throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
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Notes
- 1.
In our perspective, and consistent with the conceptualization in this collection, we define a political shock as a substantively significant and rapid change in the level or value of a given factor, here typically as an independent variable.
- 2.
United Nations General Assembly. (2005, September 16) 2005 World Summit Outcome. A/RES/60/1, 138–140. Available online at: https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N05/487/60/PDF/N0548760.pdf. Last accessed 20 August 2022.
- 3.
One can conceptualize a shock as a wave (e.g., of water). A big wave might result from a single factor (i.e., a large stone) or the summation of many factors (i.e., a series of small stones in quick succession).
- 4.
To operationalize a shock variable, one must ideally theorize somewhat about how fast the shock’s effect decays—a shortcoming we discuss above. The end of the Cold War, for example, might encourage immediate changes in behavior (e.g., in 1991–1992), as well as some delayed changes (e.g., 1995–1996). Both types of change can be rapid and abrupt, when they occur. Moreover, the effect of the shock may decline over time, being strongest in immediate proximity to the shock and declining as time moves on.
- 5.
This is William Walker’s expedition into Central America. He put together a private army and tried to take pieces of Mexico and Central America to establish slave-holding US colonies there. The US government did not authorize or support this, but the attempt shocked and threated Latin American states.
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Owsiak, A., Diehl, P.F., Schenoni, L., Goertz, G. (2023). Political Shocks and the Punctuated Equilibrium Model: Applications to the Evolution of Norms in the Americas. In: Thompson, W.R., Volgy, T.J. (eds) Shocks and Political Change. Evidence-Based Approaches to Peace and Conflict Studies, vol 11. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-1498-2_3
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