Abstract
An increase in global temperatures at rapid rate is attributed to greenhouse gas emissions mainly from our energy system. This paper performs a comparison and meta-analysis of low carbon scenarios based on integrated assessment models to provide insights on India’s greenhouse gas mitigation potential. This review compares the range of scenario formulation methods, analytical models, energy demand estimation methods, baseline scenarios, mitigation drivers, and low carbon scenario assumptions. A meta-analysis was conducted to provide insights on findings from these scenarios by analyzing trends in energy mix, electricity production, and emissions for 2050. The analysis of mitigation scenarios shows a clear decline in energy and carbon intensity for year 2050. The studies use a range of policies and targets for analyzing mitigation potential for India. This paper highlights trends in past studies where earlier studies have used parametric changes to create energy scenarios while recent studies have also used structural changes and policy options. The policy scenarios suggest a reduction in energy intensity by 70% with emission intensity declining by more than 90% by 2050. The emissions in policy scenarios stabilize in the range of 1300–2600 million tonne CO2 by 2050 averaged at 2118 million tonnes. The policy scenarios also suggest a phaseout of coal and its substitution with gas combined with carbon capture, nuclear, and solar. The study further discusses emerging avenues for future research and implications for policy modeling in Indian context.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Department of Science and Technology, Climate Change Programme for supporting fellowship of students at Centre of Excellence in Climate Studies at IIT Bombay.
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Appendices
Appendix A: Catalogue of Studies with Low Carbon Scenarios for India
Sr. no. | Studies | Scenario years |
|---|---|---|
1 | Shukla (2006) | 2000–2100 |
2 | Shukla et al. (2008) | 2005–2050 |
3 | Parikh et al. (2009) | 2006–2031 |
4 | Massetti (2011) | 2005–2050 |
5 | Shukla and Chaturvedi (2011) | 2005–2095 |
6 | Shukla and Chaturvedi (2012) | 2005–2095 |
7 | Gambhir et al. (2014) | 2010–2050 |
8 | Anandarajah and Gambhir (2014) | 2005–2050 |
9 | Mittal et al. (2016) | 2010–2030 |
10 | TERI (2006) | 2001–2031 |
11 | Shukla et al. (2010)a | 2005–2050 |
12 | Johansson et al. (2014) | 2010–2050 |
13 | Lucas et al. (2013) | 2010–2050 |
14 | Van Sluisveld et al. (2013) | 2000–2100 |
15 | Shukla et al. (2017) | 2016–2030 |
16 | Calvin et al. (2012) | 2005–2050 |
17 | Planning Commission (2014) | 2007–2030 |
18 | NCAER (2009) | 2003/04–2030/31 |
19 | TERI (2013) | 2001–2051 |
20 | Shukla et al. (2015) | 2005–2050 |
21 | CSTEP (2015) | 2012–2030 |
22 | World Bank (2011) | 2007–2031 |
Appendix B: Mitigation Drivers (Measures Deployed Are Marked with x)
S. No. | Study | Energy mix changes | Energy efficiency measures | CCS | Demand-side factors | Credits trading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Shukla (2006) | x | x | x | x | x |
2 | Parikh et al. (2009) | x | x | |||
3 | Massetti (2011) | x | x | |||
4 | Shukla et al. (2008) | x | x | x | x | |
5 | Shukla and Chaturvedi (2012) | x | x | |||
6 | Shukla and Chaturvedi (2011) | x | x | x | x | |
7 | Gambhir et al. (2014) | x | x | x | x | x |
8 | Anandarajah and Gambhir (2014) | x | x | x | ||
9 | Mittal et al. (2016) | x | x | x | x |
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Kumar, P., Mishra, T., Banerjee, R. (2019). Review of Indian Low Carbon Scenarios. In: Venkataraman, C., Mishra, T., Ghosh, S., Karmakar, S. (eds) Climate Change Signals and Response. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0280-0_11
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