Abstract
In this chapter presents projections of households and living arrangements for the five decades from 2000 to 2050 with medium, small, and large family scenarios, for each of the 50 states, DC, six counties of Southern California, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. Among many interesting numerical outcomes of household and living arrangements projections with medium, low, and high bounds, the aging of American households over the next few decades across all states/areas is particularly striking.
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Notes
- 1.
One common approach in population projection is to hold some of the current demographic rates constant throughout the projection horizon (e.g., Day 1996; Treadway 1997). Smith et al. (2001: 83–84) argued that neither the direction nor the magnitude of future changes can be predicted accurately, and thus if upward or downward movements are more or less equally likely, constant demographic rates provide a reasonable forecast of future rates.
- 2.
The race-sex-specific demographic parameters (TFR is parity-specific) (see parameters (a) to (h) in panel (3) of Table 3.1) in the medium, small, and large family scenarios in selected years from 2000 to 2050 for each of the 50 states, DC, each of the M-S Area and six countries of SC require one large table occupying about one full page of space. To include them in this book would require 58 pages, which is not feasible and not necessary, and thus they are not presented.
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Information About Population Sizes of the 50 States, DC, the Six Counties of SC, and the M-S Area
Among the 50 states and DC, the state of Wyoming had the smallest total population size of 0.49 million and California had the largest population size of 33.9 million in 2000.
Among the six counties of Southern California, Imperial county had the smallest total population size of 0.14 million and Los Angeles county had the largest population size of 9.51 million in 2000. The total population size of the Minneapolis-St. Paul Area (including 7 counties of Anoka, Carver Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Washington, and Minnesota) in 2000 was 2.64 million. For such relatively large counties, cities, or areas with adequate data to estimate the summary demographic parameters, we can apply the ProFamy approach to project household and living arrangements, using demographic race-age-sex-specific model standard schedules at the national level. Employing the ProFamy approach, Wang (2009a, b, 2011a, b) has successfully conducted household and living arrangement projections for each of the six counties of SC and the M-S Area, upon requests from the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and the Minnesota Twin City Municipality Government. The main results for the six counties of SC and M-S Area presented in Tables 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 9.6, 9.7 and 9.8 in Appendix 2 are cited from these projects’ final reports by Wang (2009a, b, 2011a, b). We are very grateful to Simon Choi and Todd Graham for their comments on these reports.
Appendix 2: Output of Household and Living Arrangement Projections, U.S. Sub-National Level
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Zeng, Y., Land, K.C., Gu, D., Wang, Z. (2014). Household and Living Arrangement Projections for the 50 States, Washington DC, and Relatively Large Counties in the U.S.. In: Household and Living Arrangement Projections. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 36. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_9
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