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Hypothesis Testing and Significance

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Understanding Inferential Statistics
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Abstract

Building on the distinction between sample and population, this chapter covers the process of testing hypotheses about population parameters. Here, substantive hypotheses of interest are transformed into a statistical formulation consisting of a mutually exclusive pair of alternative and null hypotheses. Deciding between these two hypotheses is possible based on the result of a significance test. In this context, we introduce the logic underlying such decisions using a simulation, including concepts such as significance level and p-value. The logic described here will also be the cornerstone for almost all statistical tests discussed in this book.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    We will return to the distinction between dependent and independent samples in Sect. 5.3.

  2. 2.

    Considering the probability of observing either the measured value for D or more extreme values is useful and sometimes necessary for several reasons. For instance, if we had fine-grained measurements, the probability of a particular outcome is necessarily small (in case of continuous variables it is even 0), so that we cannot draw meaningful conclusions from the probability of a particular event. However, because more extreme—here: larger—values would also speak against the H0, we assess the probability of the observed value or even more extreme data instead.

  3. 3.

    An approximation for this probability is provided by so-called Bayesian statistics. We will discuss the basics of these approaches in Chap. 12.

References

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  • Neyman, J., & Pearson, E. S. (1928). On the use and interpretation of certain test criteria for purposes of statistical inference. Biometrika, 20A, 175–240.

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  • Renkewitz, F., & Sedlmeier, P. (2007). Forschungsmethoden und Statistik in der Psychologie. Pearson.

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Janczyk, M., Pfister, R. (2023). Hypothesis Testing and Significance. In: Understanding Inferential Statistics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-66786-6_4

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