Zusammenfassung
Die US-amerikanische Präsidentenwahl im Jahr 2016 hat weltweit für Aufmerksamkeit gesorgt, da anhand der damaligen Prognosen mit der Niederlage von Hilary Clinton nicht gerechnet wurde. In diesem Beitrag geht es um die Rekonstruktion der Prognosen anhand vorhandener Umfragewerte mit dem Self-Enforcing Network (SEN) und um ein erweitertes Prognosemodell, um mögliche Gründe für die Wahl von Donald Trump aufzuzeigen.
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Literatur
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Schkolski, A., Zengin, M.M., Demmer, J. (2021). Rekonstruktion der US-Wahlergebnisse 2016: Modellierung und Simulation der Prognosen. In: Klüver, C., Klüver, J. (eds) Neue Algorithmen für praktische Probleme. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-32587-9_11
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