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Unwissenschaftlich weil unsicher? Unsicher weil wissenschaftlich!

Szenarien, Modelle und Projektionen in den Klimawissenschaften

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Exploring Uncertainty

Zusammenfassung

Die Klimawissenschaften entwickelten – u.a. aufgrund der Komplexität des Klimasystems und den damit einhergehenden Schwierigkeiten bei dessen Modellierung – einen sehr differenzierten Umgang mit Unsicherheiten, der für viele andere Wissenschaften richtungsweisend sein kann. Dieser Beitrag wendet sich der Art und Entstehung von Unsicherheiten zu, mit denen sich derzeit die Klimatologie und angrenzende Wissenschaften bei der Modellierung der Auswirkungen menschenverursachter Treibhausgasemissionen auf das Klima der Zukunft konfrontiert sehen. Abschätzungen für große Zeitskalen in globalem Maßstab werden dabei von regionalen Modellierungen unterschieden. Oftmals wird die Unsicherheit der Modellierung als Argument für politische Untätigkeit herangeführt. Obgleich allerdings die Vielfalt an Unsicherheiten in der Modellierung den politischen Entscheidungsprozess vor große Herausforderungen stellt, zeigen wir in diesem Artikel, dass für die anstehenden Entscheidungen in der bevorstehenden Energiewende die relevanten Informationen bereits vorliegen und politische Untätigkeit keinesfalls mit Rekurs auf Unsicherheit bei der Klimamodellierung begründet werden kann.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. TPM, TU Delft, Jaffalaan 5, NL-2628, Delft, Netherlands

    Rafaela Hillerbrand

  2. Geographisches Institut, RWTH Aachen University, Templergraben 55, 52056, Aachen, Deutschland

    Christoph Schneider

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  1. Rafaela Hillerbrand
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  2. Christoph Schneider
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Correspondence to Rafaela Hillerbrand .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. , ZLW/IMA & IfU, RWTH Aachen University, Dennewartstraße 27, Aachen, 52068, Germany

    Sabina Jeschke

  2. , Ins. f. Sprach- u. Kommunikationswiss., RWTH Aachen, Templergraben 83, Aachen, 52062, Germany

    Eva-Maria Jakobs

  3. , IMA/ZLW, RWTH Aachen, dennewartstr. 27, Aachen, 52068, Germany

    Alicia Dröge

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Hillerbrand, R., Schneider, C. (2013). Unwissenschaftlich weil unsicher? Unsicher weil wissenschaftlich!. In: Jeschke, S., Jakobs, EM., Dröge, A. (eds) Exploring Uncertainty. Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-00897-0_7

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