Abstract
It is well know that the south west monsoon or popularly known summer monsoon dictates the economy of the sub-continent. A good monsoon year results in good rainfall increased production and a boom in the economy on the contrary a bad monsoon year with deficit rainfall results in decrease in the yield and a subsequent reduction in agricultural production and economy of the country. Indian Government and Indian scientists did a wonderful job in increasing the agricultural production to cater to the needs of increased population. However, in years of El Niño the monsoon activity and the monsoon rainfall is below normal and results in a decrease in production. In order to get a sustainable development, this is the area where serious scientific measures are to be implemented to get sustained development. It is possible to achieve this difficult task, because El Niño sends a forewarning signal in December with an increased abnormal SST of the coast of the Brazil in Pacific. The aim and objective of the present article is to focus about the phenomena of El Niño and La Niña, the mechanism the manifestation and the intensity. The reduction in monsoon circulation in fluxes and rainfall. This was amply described by estimating the oceanic fluxes, which will send clear signals as to the intensity of an El Niño and La Niña. In this article the yearly all India grain production from 1953 to 2007 was also examined. The increasing trend can be interpreted as the proper agro technical measures and use of complex fertilizers (intensive cultivation) besides increase in the land under cultivation (bringing waste lands into irrigated fields – extensive cultivation. From the sequential March of grain production it is seen that the El Niño years resulted in deficit in production. It is suggested that proper agro management techniques can at least decrease the deficit in production. Various management programs in this direction were also suggested.
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Subrahmanyam, M.V., Satyanarayana, T., Murthy, K.P.R.V. (2011). Prediction of Monsoon Variability and Subsequent Agricultural Production During El Niño/La Niña Periods. In: Attri, S., Rathore, L., Sivakumar, M., Dash, S. (eds) Challenges and Opportunities in Agrometeorology. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19360-6_8
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