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Sea-Level Change and Flood Risks at Estonian Coastal Zone

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Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East

Part of the book series: Coastal Research Library ((COASTALRL,volume 19))

Abstract

This paper reviews Estonian relative sea level, land uplift and coastal floods data and provides sea-level scenarios and risk assessment of coastal flooding in urban areas for the twenty-first century. Considering the present post-glacial land uplift rates of Estonian coastal areas and the global ocean level rise projections, the long-existing trend of relative sea-level lowering may very probably be replaced by a relative sea-level rising trend during the twenty-first century. By the end of the twenty-first century we project the relative sea level to be c. 20 to 40 cm or c. 40 to 60 cm higher in the case of the International Panel for Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 or RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. The sea-level rise together with the increased storm frequency and decreased winter ice cover period will very probably increase the extent of floods during the twenty-first century. A significant coastal flooding risk affects four cities, Pärnu, Kuressaare, Haapsalu and Tallinn and eight smaller towns. The largest coastal flooding in Estonia is recorded in Pärnu, with the highest sea level 275 cm in 2005. Calculations show that due to the impact of predicted climate change and in the case of certain weather conditions, coastal floods in Pärnu may affect areas up to 400 cm above the present sea level by the end of the twenty-first century. The scenarious of future flood limits are needed for sustainable planning of the coastal zone and for development of rescue strategies.There are already several land use and urban planning instruments and laws for climate adaptation, such as environmental impact assessment, risk assessment and restriction zones for construction in certain buffer and flood areas. Flooding risk measures consist of risk mapping and a national emergency plan. However, further integration of climate issues into existing laws, strategies and land use plans is essential to have a targeted approach in reducing the vulnerability of populated areas and strengthening the adaptive capacity of the urban system against climate change.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Daria Ryabchuk for her comments and suggestions for improving the manuscript. This multidisciplinary study was supported primarily by the EEA Grants project “Assessment of climate change impacts and elaboration of adaptation instruments in the field of planning, land use, health and rescue management (KATI)”. The research was also financed by Estonian Research Council research grants PUT456, ETF9011, IUT20-34, IUT2-16 and IUT2–17. Paper has been written in the framework of IGCP project 639 “Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia”, supported by UNESCO and IUGS.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia

    Alar Rosentau, Enn Karro & Marge Uppin

  2. Department of Geography, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia

    Merle Muru, Martin Gauk, Antti Roose & Mait Sepp

  3. Estonian Land Board, Tallinn, Estonia

    Tõnis Oja

  4. Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia

    Aive Liibusk, Tarmo Kall & Ants Tammepuu

  5. Rescue College, Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, Tallinn, Estonia

    Ants Tammepuu

  6. Rescue College, Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, Tallinn, Estonia

    Jaan Tross

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Correspondence to Alar Rosentau .

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  1. Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland

    Jan Harff

  2. Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland

    Kazimierz Furmańczyk

  3. Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany

    Hans von Storch

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Rosentau, A. et al. (2017). Sea-Level Change and Flood Risks at Estonian Coastal Zone. In: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., von Storch, H. (eds) Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East. Coastal Research Library, vol 19. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_16

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